MLB Talk - Playoff Edition: On to October

All 162 (or 163) games have been played.

The seven month grind of the baseball season has brought us here.

It started with chilly days in April and now we have reached to dark and sometimes cold nights of October.

For some teams, this was to be expected. Those teams real season begin with Game 1 of the postseason.

While for some others, making to the postseason was a complete surprise. Realistically, they never thought this could be possible, and here they stand among the final eight teams with a chance to win the World Series.

The Red Sox, Angels and Cubs would have considered their seasons a failure had their season not ended in a postseason appearance. Each of these three teams went wire-to-wire from start to finish. At no point were they ever seriously threatened.

For teams like the Los Angeles Dodgers and the Philadelphia Phillies, it was an early struggle. It took a while before each team found their stride in the second half of the season. In Philadelphia’s case, they started strong and built as much as an eight game lead over the New York Mets. After a slight second half fall, the Phillies staged a September comeback to catch the Mets and win the NL East for the second straight year.

In Los Angeles, the Dodgers appeared to be on a pace for nowhere. Then, coming out of the sky and descending on their team at the trading deadline was Manny Ramirez. Overnight, Manny captivated the town and his team. The Dodgers chased the Arizona Diamondbacks, caught and then passed them. For manager Joe Torre, leaving New York did not become so bad after all. As sheer fate would have it, he is once again managing games in October while his former team the Yankees sits at home and watches playoff games from the comfort of their home.

The Milwaukee Brewers thought their season was in freefall after being swept by the Cubs in July. In September, things spiraled out of control and they fired their manager. With seven games to go, they trailed the New York Mets by two and a half games. While the Mets for the second year in a row choked away another late season lead, the Brewers rallies, mostly behind their hired gun CC Sabathia (traded for in July) and on the final day of the season, won the Wild Card and entry into the playoffs.

Nothing was expected of the Chicago White Sox before the 2008 season. Playing in a division with the Cleveland Indians, who got to Game 7 of the ALCS in 2007, and with a Detroit Tigers team that made numerous additions and beefed up its payroll to 140 million, they were expected to finish in third place. With great pitching and the help of both teams floundering, the White Sox went past both of them and finally got into the playoffs winning a tiebreaker over the Minnesota Twins to gain entry to the playoffs.

All of these teams stories pale in comparison to the story of the Tampa Bay Rays. A last place team for every year of their existence, the Rays started the season well and the baseball world looked on laughed. They were dismissed as being “Just Tampa”, thought of as a team that would inevitably fall. May, June and July came and they were still on top. The Yankees were supposed to catch them when the weather got warmer and the pressure on them was allegedly to grow. August came and so did September, and the Rays were still standing. It was no longer a fluke.

Close to 100 wins later, this team full of young players is now going to play on baseball biggest stage. Everyone watching around the world will get to know who each of these players are and if they advance further in the playoffs, their story will be among the greatest in sports history.

All of these teams, stories and min subplots are set to blend its way into what should be a great October. Even though I will not have the Yankees in it this year for my personal viewing consumption, watching the rest the league play this month long drama is sure to provide some compelling moments that we will remember.

With that, I provide you a breakdown of each American and National League Division Series along with my predictions:

American League Division Series

Boston Red Sox vs. Los Angeles Angels

If you would have had your preference, these two teams would be matched up in the in the ALCS. While that will not happen, we get the best matchup of the American League playoffs.
Josh Beckett has shown himself to be healthy over the last month and has been this generation’s version of Bob Gibson in postseason play. If he performs at the same level, the Red Sox have a great chance to repeat as champions.

For the Angels, this the best team they will have fielded since winning the 2002 World Series. Their lineup is strong from one through nine and the addition of Mark Teixeira has finally given Vladimir Guerrero. John Lackey is lined up with Ervin Santana and Joe Saunders to cut down previous postseason deficiencies they had in pitching in comparison to Boston.

In each of their last two postseason meetings, we have been hoping for these two to give us a great series. The Angels have not held up their end as they have been swept in both 2004 and 2007. This time, it appears this series with finally live up to the hype.

Prediction: Red Sox in 5

Chicago White Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays

The White Sox have the momentum of needing to win their final three games to make the playoffs. It was a mission they accomplished; however, the Rays have been a great team all season from the start. The only problem with Tampa one could foresee is whether the innings logged by their starters will catch up with them. Outside of that, they have been the ultimate “team”. Their lineup comes up with a different hero on any given night. Look for that to continue.

Prediction: Rays in 4

National League Division Series

Milwaukee Brewers vs. Philadelphia Phillies

If CC Sabathia could pitch every night, the Brewers would be favorites to win the World Series. Unfortunately, medical technology has not advanced enough to allow that. Add to it the elbow pain that exists in co-ace Ben Sheets, and that leaves them compromised dramatically in their series with Philadelphia.

The Phillies are hot and have their pitchers lined up as opposed to last season. Cole Hamels, Brett Myers and Jaime Moyer provide the advantage. They are a better team and have a bullpen that has improved greatly from last year. Losing this series would be an upset, but it is unlikely to happen.

The Brewers are likely to start Sabathia on three days rest for the fourth consecutive time. Sooner or later, unless CC has a bionic arm, this will catch up to him and his team sooner or later. Look at last years postseason for evidence.

Prediction: Phillies in 4

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago Cubs

The best National League series pits the best team all year against the best team in the second half of the season. While it would appear that the Cubs have the advantage in this series, the differences between the two teams are very slight and in a five game series, can swing in either direction.

Derek Lowe has been the best pitcher statistically over the last 33 innings. Ryan Dempster has been the league best home pitcher. Something will have to give in Game 1 at Wrigley Field.

Game 2 pits young stud Chad Billingsley against Carlos Zambrano, who has been enigmatic through the second half of the season. Each pitcher is eminently capable of delivering a dynamite performance. After Hiroki Kuroda and Rich Harden meet in Game 3, what will the Dodgers do for a Game 4 starter? Do they use the rookie Clayton Kershaw? Or, do they go with old veteran Greg Maddux?

What will the Cubs do when Manny Ramirez comes to the plate? Likely, if there is a base open, Manager Lou Pinella will simply put up four fingers to walk him and force anyone else that is hitting behind him to come through. If they do, they will be able to lengthen their lineup and have success against the Cubs pitching.

On the other side, the Cubs offense has been an OPS machine against the rest of the National League. However, as many teams find out, the ability to draw walks only works against mediocre pitching. When you are facing a pitcher, who consistently pounds the strike zone, you will not able to be as patient and will have to swing early in the count. It will be interesting to see if their principles that they adopted this season take a vacation as the pressure of playoff baseball takes shape.

For the Cubs, losing this series would not be an upset, but it would signal a failed season. If the Dodgers win, it will just add to a season they never could have expected.

I believe they will get it.

Prediction: Dodgers in 5

You cannot script October.

Random Baseball Thoughts

My choice for National League MVP is Ryan Howard.

My choice for American League MVP is Kevin Youkilis.

My choice for National League CY Young is Tim Lincecum.

My choice for American League CY Young is Cliff Lee.

Joe Torre and Joe Maddon each must receive the Manager of the Year award.

What else can you say about the New York Mets?

Two years in a row they have blown a late season lead and find themselves at home for October.
How do they correct this?

It is not as simple and just getting better bullpen guys to make up for the 29 blown saves the team had this season, or the 11 games that the Mets blew after leading past the eighth inning.

Something has to be said for the fact that this offense only managed to score five runs in the three game final series to the Marlins.

They are structurally flawed and there is no simple correction for them. It is safe to say that their run is over even though it never really started. Johan Santana was supposed to get them over the hump. If it weren’t for him, they would have lost the division by 10 games. But he is one man, and that one man rarely ever carries a team by himself, especially when he is only available once every five days.

In essence, the Mets have rendered the first five and a half months of next year irrelevant. No one will care unless they are ahead by such a wide margin that there is no way possible for them to blow it.

It is in the psyche of the fans and now the players cannot run away from it. From this day forward, it is ingrained in their minds.

The bottom line is this, as long as the quartet of David Wright, Jose Reyes, Carlos Beltran and Carlos Delgado are together on the same team, they will not a World Series.

I guess someone had to win the American League Central.

The Florida Marlins have so much young talent on that team that by next season, they should be competing for the NL East title along with the Phillies.

I am in the adoption market for a team to root for during baseballs postseason. By Wednesday, I should have a decision. Early leaders in the clubhouse are the Dodgers. I am rooting for Joe Torre to get back to another World Series as a means of sticking it to the Hank Steinbrenner and the hierarchy of the Yankees brass who stupidly thought that any manager could handle the Yankees.

Oops, I guess they were wrong.