In this final edition of Yankee Talk, I decided to reflect back on a year gone wrong and try to break down if what happened in this lost season could have been prevented. Was all of the breakdowns just luck? Was there something else? A lot of people have been trying to figure it out. I take it one step further.
True or False: The downfall of the Yankee offense could have been foreseen.
Answer: True
The last three years, the team’s offense was being held together by chewing gum. Each year it got older and the possibility of injuries and declining performance was bound to happen. Brian Cashman obviously did not believe this because at the end of the day, the results showed that numbers wise, their offense was fine.
What could have been looked at is the fact that Melky Cabrera’s OPS decreased 30 points from 2006 to 2007. It further decreased in 2008 despite his early home run tear. Teams started figuring out his tendencies, and when he did not adjust, he not only became a black hole in the lineup, he found his way to the minor leagues. Add to that, the first half lack of extra base hit power from Bobby Abreu (.750 OPS), and basically two outfield spots prior to the All Star break were being comprised of one guy who couldn’t hit, and another guy who didn’t hit enough. Mix in Alex Rodriguez having a statistical market correction from last season, then you having the makings of slightly less run production.
The other declines could or could not have been foreseen. Was there a belief that Robinson Cano could drift the moment he received his 30 million contract?
Yes.
Should the Yankees have figured that they were taking an extreme risk with Jorge Posada at 36 years old and expecting him not to get injured?
Yes.
Anytime you have a catcher at that age, anything is possible. But because he plays a premium position that because of his hitting prowess makes him invaluable, the Yankees had to take the risk. It wasn’t as if they had Geovany Soto waiting in the minor leagues to come up and replace him. If they did, they would have let him walk when Posada’s camp demanded a fourth year or threatened to walk to the Mets.
True or False: The downfall of the Yankee offense could have been foreseen.
Answer: True
The last three years, the team’s offense was being held together by chewing gum. Each year it got older and the possibility of injuries and declining performance was bound to happen. Brian Cashman obviously did not believe this because at the end of the day, the results showed that numbers wise, their offense was fine.
What could have been looked at is the fact that Melky Cabrera’s OPS decreased 30 points from 2006 to 2007. It further decreased in 2008 despite his early home run tear. Teams started figuring out his tendencies, and when he did not adjust, he not only became a black hole in the lineup, he found his way to the minor leagues. Add to that, the first half lack of extra base hit power from Bobby Abreu (.750 OPS), and basically two outfield spots prior to the All Star break were being comprised of one guy who couldn’t hit, and another guy who didn’t hit enough. Mix in Alex Rodriguez having a statistical market correction from last season, then you having the makings of slightly less run production.
The other declines could or could not have been foreseen. Was there a belief that Robinson Cano could drift the moment he received his 30 million contract?
Yes.
Should the Yankees have figured that they were taking an extreme risk with Jorge Posada at 36 years old and expecting him not to get injured?
Yes.
Anytime you have a catcher at that age, anything is possible. But because he plays a premium position that because of his hitting prowess makes him invaluable, the Yankees had to take the risk. It wasn’t as if they had Geovany Soto waiting in the minor leagues to come up and replace him. If they did, they would have let him walk when Posada’s camp demanded a fourth year or threatened to walk to the Mets.
All of these factors played a role in the offense struggling this year. It could have been prevented, but the Yankees had too many dollars invested in too many older players and counting on them to deliver. In the end, it was their downfall. Expecting that you can just bring the same offense back and think that everything will just work out is foolish and ridiculous.
There is a reason that even when most of their players were healthy, they couldn’t muster big hits with men on base. A selfish feeling of “I have to be the man” permeated segments of the lineup when a simple approach of setting up the next hitter would have been beneficial. That is not going to change if the same group is back next season.
True or False: The Yankees pitching was a good this year as it was in 2007.
Answer: False
This has been the myth of the entire season. Anyone who subscribes to this theory needs to seriously examine their baseball intellect.
In 2007, only one American League team finished with an ERA under 4.00.
The team: Los Angeles Angels.
In 2008, FIVE teams finished with a team ERA less than 4.00.
The Yankees ERA from last year was the same as it was this season, but that doesn’t mean the pitching was good. Three teams in the Yankees own division had better earned run averages than the Yankees did. This difference is the reason they are not in the playoffs. No team can trout out Sidney Ponson and Darrell Rasner for 40 starts in a season and reasonably expects to make the playoffs.
You can score less runs and win and if you give up less. But if you give up the same amount of runs and score less, you have no chance.
True or False: Having Johan Santana on the Yankees would have gotten them to the playoffs.
Answer: True
The train of thought has been from some fans that the team’s offense would not have supported Santana’s great pitching this year to make a difference.
However, you cannot underestimate what having him on the mound every five days can do for a team. When he is out there, there is a believe collectively among the team that they will win when he is pitching. For the Yankees, whenever Ponson, Rasner, or even Phil Hughes or Ian Kennedy were on the mound, the Yankees offense did not know what to expect and thus a reasonable argument could be made that the team was forced to press unnecessarily. Not being able to relax at the plate and being of the mind that they had to score seven or eight runs rather than just going out on the field loose put undo pressure on them.
Having Santana, a team can score three runs and feel confident that he will deliver them to victory. As the second half of the season played out, the credit card bills for Ponson and Rasner were due and the Yanks could not pay when they went south and eventually out of the rotation. Santana meanwhile did not lose a game in the second half and if it were not for a horrific bullpen, would have won 20 games and the CY Young. Replace either Hughes, Kennedy, Ponson or Rasner with Santana, and despite Wang’s injury, the Yankees would have won legitimately seven to ten more games and would have been in the playoffs despite their anemic at times offense.
True or False: The Yankees were “killed” by injuries.
Answer: False…sort of
You have to start from the premise that the Yankees everyday lineup reads off as a pseudo-All Star team. When your seventh and eighth place hitters were Hideki Matsui and Robinson Cano, you lose the injury excuse argument
The Yankees possessed on Opening Day the best one through nine lineups in baseball. Compare that to the ones the Red Sox, Rays, White Sox, Twins and Angels and even if you take away two guys, their lineups is still equal if not better than the other teams.
Were they running out a National League lineup on some nights early in the season? Yes. But that could have been prevented if the stars that were still in that lineup would have produced instead of created a malaise that made the team an impotent offensive machine.
When it comes to the pitching, the team got a bad break losing Chien-Ming Wang to injury. But because they also staked their season hopes on two rookie pitchers, they were eventually doomed to failure. Mike Mussina over exceeded everyone’s expectations. Andy Pettitte eventually fell victim to succumbing to the lack of the run support in the second half of the season.
Joba Chamberlain had picked up the role left by Wang and was pitching like an ace pitcher. But when he went down on a hot night in Texas, the season went along with it. For three weeks, they tried to pick up some additional pitching depth (they had a possible deal with Seattle for Jarrod Washburn) and were not able to complete a trade. Not having any quality backup depth, mixed in with the two injuries crippled their rotation to the point where they were playing on borrowed time.
True or False: Joe Torre could have guided this team to the playoffs instead of Joe Girardi.
Answer: False
Give Torre credit, he knew that this ship was slowing beginning to sink and probably made the best move of all by getting out before it went under.
I believe that he had the foresight to know that the sum that is the Yankees were holding on barely and that getting this group to the playoffs was a lot harder than anyone gave him credit for. This team was too old, lacked enough athleticism and hunger, and yet somehow was able to persevere and make it to October. When Girardi was hired, none of those problems was addressed. The same old farts returned for another Broadway performance, and sure enough, they began to decay.
Could Torre’s calming influence have worked in contrast to Girardi’s football mentality? Yes. It likely would have loosened up an offense that appeared to be squeezing the sawdust out the bat and major run scoring situations.
Girardi appeared to have some players tune him out. The lapses on the base paths, the inability (or defiance) to pick up signs and a lack of plate discipline all added up. That is before the seeming disconnect that he had with some of the veteran players. It is no secret that when this season went south, several unknown Yankee players question his leadership and overall, the team did not have either trust Girardi or simply drifted and did not play as hard enough for him as they did for Torre.
Somewhere along the line, something happened. This year though, it is likely that no manager would have been able to handle this specific group of players.
True or False: Phil Hughes can be trusted to be in the Yankees starting rotation in 2009?
Answer: False
This was a wasted season for Hughes. Much like Clay Buchholz of the Red Sox, and unlike Mike Pelfrey of the Mets, Hughes was unable to have any type of success this season. While he had a great final start to his year, it should be noted that you are not to believe anything that you see in March and September. The new Rick Vaughn glasses may prove to be successful for him in the long run, but the Yankees need to make him earned a spot in the rotation as opposed to automatically handing him one.
After that point, if he can provide 170 quality innings in both the minor or major leagues, it will help him and the Yankees.
True or False: Joba Chamberlain should be a starter as opposed to a reliever in 2009?
Answer: True
This is the biggest question going into next season, even more than whether they should sign CC Sabathia and another high-end starter in the off-season.
What do the Yankees have with Chamberlain?
Because he did not make his projected innings cap for the season, once again the Yankees go into next season needing to be very creative into get Chamberlain between 150-170 innings. This leads once again into him starting in the bullpen and then stretched as a starter around May. That is one option, while the other would be for him to be in the rotation and simply skip him several times during the year seven or eight times, that way he could project to finish near 160 innings and still help the Yankees as a starter.
If they sign two free agent pitchers and put them alongside Andy Pettitte and Mike Mussina, than that leaves the option of putting Chamberlain in the bullpen next season to setup for Mariano Rivera. Doing that would give the Yankees the best bullpen 1-2 pinch in baseball. But after seeing Joba pitch in the rotation, one could only fantasize about what his potential could be if he was able to spend a full season as a starter.
True or False: The Yankees can bring the exact same offensive team back and expect better results.
Answer: False
The fact that this group off All Stars could not hit with men on base, come from behind in the late innings, or seemed to only be driven by their own personal statistics not to be able to sacrifice some of themselves for the benefit of the team strikes to the fractured nature of this team.
With that, any idea of bring back nearly 80 percent of the same lineup next year is crazy.
Jason Giambi is not likely to return. The team needs a better center fielder than the nobody that exists now. Bobby Abreu’s numbers may look nice now, but that does not make up for taking off the first three months of the season power wise. Jorge Posada is an unknown until further notice. Johnny Damon may have had a fine season, but his age is a question mark. The same goes for Derek Jeter. Does Robinson Cano dramatically improve his performance next year, or was it simply a fluke?
No one really knows.
Too many question marks exist to keep all of these guys around. A cleansing is needed and some of these guys have to get out as soon as possible. Keeping them around another season is something that is not going to fly. If they do bring them back, expect the same offensive results next season.
See you next season.
There is a reason that even when most of their players were healthy, they couldn’t muster big hits with men on base. A selfish feeling of “I have to be the man” permeated segments of the lineup when a simple approach of setting up the next hitter would have been beneficial. That is not going to change if the same group is back next season.
True or False: The Yankees pitching was a good this year as it was in 2007.
Answer: False
This has been the myth of the entire season. Anyone who subscribes to this theory needs to seriously examine their baseball intellect.
In 2007, only one American League team finished with an ERA under 4.00.
The team: Los Angeles Angels.
In 2008, FIVE teams finished with a team ERA less than 4.00.
The Yankees ERA from last year was the same as it was this season, but that doesn’t mean the pitching was good. Three teams in the Yankees own division had better earned run averages than the Yankees did. This difference is the reason they are not in the playoffs. No team can trout out Sidney Ponson and Darrell Rasner for 40 starts in a season and reasonably expects to make the playoffs.
You can score less runs and win and if you give up less. But if you give up the same amount of runs and score less, you have no chance.
True or False: Having Johan Santana on the Yankees would have gotten them to the playoffs.
Answer: True
The train of thought has been from some fans that the team’s offense would not have supported Santana’s great pitching this year to make a difference.
However, you cannot underestimate what having him on the mound every five days can do for a team. When he is out there, there is a believe collectively among the team that they will win when he is pitching. For the Yankees, whenever Ponson, Rasner, or even Phil Hughes or Ian Kennedy were on the mound, the Yankees offense did not know what to expect and thus a reasonable argument could be made that the team was forced to press unnecessarily. Not being able to relax at the plate and being of the mind that they had to score seven or eight runs rather than just going out on the field loose put undo pressure on them.
Having Santana, a team can score three runs and feel confident that he will deliver them to victory. As the second half of the season played out, the credit card bills for Ponson and Rasner were due and the Yanks could not pay when they went south and eventually out of the rotation. Santana meanwhile did not lose a game in the second half and if it were not for a horrific bullpen, would have won 20 games and the CY Young. Replace either Hughes, Kennedy, Ponson or Rasner with Santana, and despite Wang’s injury, the Yankees would have won legitimately seven to ten more games and would have been in the playoffs despite their anemic at times offense.
True or False: The Yankees were “killed” by injuries.
Answer: False…sort of
You have to start from the premise that the Yankees everyday lineup reads off as a pseudo-All Star team. When your seventh and eighth place hitters were Hideki Matsui and Robinson Cano, you lose the injury excuse argument
The Yankees possessed on Opening Day the best one through nine lineups in baseball. Compare that to the ones the Red Sox, Rays, White Sox, Twins and Angels and even if you take away two guys, their lineups is still equal if not better than the other teams.
Were they running out a National League lineup on some nights early in the season? Yes. But that could have been prevented if the stars that were still in that lineup would have produced instead of created a malaise that made the team an impotent offensive machine.
When it comes to the pitching, the team got a bad break losing Chien-Ming Wang to injury. But because they also staked their season hopes on two rookie pitchers, they were eventually doomed to failure. Mike Mussina over exceeded everyone’s expectations. Andy Pettitte eventually fell victim to succumbing to the lack of the run support in the second half of the season.
Joba Chamberlain had picked up the role left by Wang and was pitching like an ace pitcher. But when he went down on a hot night in Texas, the season went along with it. For three weeks, they tried to pick up some additional pitching depth (they had a possible deal with Seattle for Jarrod Washburn) and were not able to complete a trade. Not having any quality backup depth, mixed in with the two injuries crippled their rotation to the point where they were playing on borrowed time.
True or False: Joe Torre could have guided this team to the playoffs instead of Joe Girardi.
Answer: False
Give Torre credit, he knew that this ship was slowing beginning to sink and probably made the best move of all by getting out before it went under.
I believe that he had the foresight to know that the sum that is the Yankees were holding on barely and that getting this group to the playoffs was a lot harder than anyone gave him credit for. This team was too old, lacked enough athleticism and hunger, and yet somehow was able to persevere and make it to October. When Girardi was hired, none of those problems was addressed. The same old farts returned for another Broadway performance, and sure enough, they began to decay.
Could Torre’s calming influence have worked in contrast to Girardi’s football mentality? Yes. It likely would have loosened up an offense that appeared to be squeezing the sawdust out the bat and major run scoring situations.
Girardi appeared to have some players tune him out. The lapses on the base paths, the inability (or defiance) to pick up signs and a lack of plate discipline all added up. That is before the seeming disconnect that he had with some of the veteran players. It is no secret that when this season went south, several unknown Yankee players question his leadership and overall, the team did not have either trust Girardi or simply drifted and did not play as hard enough for him as they did for Torre.
Somewhere along the line, something happened. This year though, it is likely that no manager would have been able to handle this specific group of players.
True or False: Phil Hughes can be trusted to be in the Yankees starting rotation in 2009?
Answer: False
This was a wasted season for Hughes. Much like Clay Buchholz of the Red Sox, and unlike Mike Pelfrey of the Mets, Hughes was unable to have any type of success this season. While he had a great final start to his year, it should be noted that you are not to believe anything that you see in March and September. The new Rick Vaughn glasses may prove to be successful for him in the long run, but the Yankees need to make him earned a spot in the rotation as opposed to automatically handing him one.
After that point, if he can provide 170 quality innings in both the minor or major leagues, it will help him and the Yankees.
True or False: Joba Chamberlain should be a starter as opposed to a reliever in 2009?
Answer: True
This is the biggest question going into next season, even more than whether they should sign CC Sabathia and another high-end starter in the off-season.
What do the Yankees have with Chamberlain?
Because he did not make his projected innings cap for the season, once again the Yankees go into next season needing to be very creative into get Chamberlain between 150-170 innings. This leads once again into him starting in the bullpen and then stretched as a starter around May. That is one option, while the other would be for him to be in the rotation and simply skip him several times during the year seven or eight times, that way he could project to finish near 160 innings and still help the Yankees as a starter.
If they sign two free agent pitchers and put them alongside Andy Pettitte and Mike Mussina, than that leaves the option of putting Chamberlain in the bullpen next season to setup for Mariano Rivera. Doing that would give the Yankees the best bullpen 1-2 pinch in baseball. But after seeing Joba pitch in the rotation, one could only fantasize about what his potential could be if he was able to spend a full season as a starter.
True or False: The Yankees can bring the exact same offensive team back and expect better results.
Answer: False
The fact that this group off All Stars could not hit with men on base, come from behind in the late innings, or seemed to only be driven by their own personal statistics not to be able to sacrifice some of themselves for the benefit of the team strikes to the fractured nature of this team.
With that, any idea of bring back nearly 80 percent of the same lineup next year is crazy.
Jason Giambi is not likely to return. The team needs a better center fielder than the nobody that exists now. Bobby Abreu’s numbers may look nice now, but that does not make up for taking off the first three months of the season power wise. Jorge Posada is an unknown until further notice. Johnny Damon may have had a fine season, but his age is a question mark. The same goes for Derek Jeter. Does Robinson Cano dramatically improve his performance next year, or was it simply a fluke?
No one really knows.
Too many question marks exist to keep all of these guys around. A cleansing is needed and some of these guys have to get out as soon as possible. Keeping them around another season is something that is not going to fly. If they do bring them back, expect the same offensive results next season.
See you next season.
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