On the surface, it would be easy to simply look at the American League East standings and see that the Yankees are only five and a half games behind the first place Boston Red Sox and Wild Card leading Tampa Bay Rays.
You could take the opinion that despite everything that has happened to the team (injuries, old age, poor production, lack of quality starting pitching) and come to the conclusion that over 162 games, everything will work themselves out because well, it always has.
This time around though, we have a much different scenario. It is a fear that has been almost three years in the making. We have a situation where all mitigating factors have come together to play a significant role as to why the Yankees find themselves where they are at this moment, 95 games into the 2008 season.
Offensive offense
Statistics can be manipulated to draw any conclusion one would want to make. However, in the case of this team, the stats do not lie. An offense constructed to score at least 900 runs (930 and 968 the last two years) is currently on pace to score over 200 less than a season ago. A starting staff and bullpen that was asked to be "just good enough", now has to pitch exemplary just to keep the team in the ballgame on most nights.
While scoring may be down around all of baseball, the mysterious lack of runs being scored in the Bronx amounts to a full-fledged drought.
What happened? Did someone shut off the power and not tell anyone? Everyone involved with the Yankees would like to know the answer to that question.
Pinpointing where the downfall started is very difficult to answer. As records show, injuries and other assorted reasons have only allowed the team's Opening Day lineup available for only ten games of the season. While every team has its share of bumps and falls during a season, this is insane. However, one could simply counter that the Yankees decided to roll the dice on this aging roster. Electing to make no moves in the off-season to get younger and more athletic and allow for the possibility of disintegration to occur at any moment.
Added to that, last year, the offense received career years were had by both Alex Rodriguez and Jorge Posada. A slender market correction to those numbers was certainly in order. Even so, that drop-off in production would be made up for by the emergence of both Robinson Cano as a superstar, and Melky Cabrera as a relatively useful offensive player that would put up OPS (on base plus slugging) averages that would justify his bat in the lineup.
Not only have they both regressed, they have been so bad to the point where if one weren't recently given 30 million or the other played good enough defense, they both would not see the field. Both players have OPS numbers of less than .700. For those not familiar with that term, think of having an upgraded version of Tony Womack (remember him) in your lineup hitting eighth AND ninth.
When Jorge Posada missed 25 games with an injury, it induced Jose Molina into a full-time spot in the batting order. Molina is great defensively, but there is a reason he is a backup catcher. My running gag about him is that if Molina could ever hit, he would be Johnny Bench because of his incredible defensive ability. Unfortunately, Molina is no Bench. He is a career .220 hitter with the occasional ability to hit a double into the gap.
Add that up so far...Molina, Cano and Cabrera making up the bottom half of your lineup. You may as well consider the Yankees playing with a glorified National League lineup. Three near automatic outs each time they come up. This was of course not considering the loss of A-Rod for nearly 30 games and being replaced by Morgan Ensberg, who had no business being on the Yankees or in baseball in general.
Four players...Ensberg, Cano, Molina and Cabrera. Over 40 percent of your lineup being inhabited by this group of inepititude. It was no secret that the offense in late April and through the middle of May had the appearance of an elevated Triple-A squad.
Both Rodriguez and Posada would return and the offense for a short time had its spark. Now, other wheels began to snap off, noticeably Bobby Abreu.
His decline was easy to predict if you investigated and found each of the last three years saw declines in both his on base, slugging percentage, and ratio of line drives to ground balls hit. The Yankees had no choice to pick up his option for 16 million because of the trash available in free agency. With an OPS of just under .800 (.781 to be precise), he is giving below average production for a premium position at an exorbitant price. He is driving in runs when giving the opportunity. When that is not happening, he is not doing much of anything.
Translation: Waste of money.
Only Jason Giambi was overmatching his production in a way that no one could have expected. He was hitting .170 early on, but the balls off his bat were hit hard and he was coming up a bit unlucky. Since then, he has rebounded and putting up one of his finer seasons as a Yankee.
While the individual numbers on certain players look respectable, the sum of the parts is not greater than the whole. Collectively as a team, they have not hit together. More concerting is their inability to hit with runners in scoring position. Once a strength, it has turned into a mysterious weakness. A runner on second base with no one out and runners on second and third with less than two out are no longer sure things for runs.
Let us review:
Damon is injured.
Jeter's OPS is down 50 points from last year.
Abreu, despite the RBI's, is in clear decline.
A-Rod is having a numbers correction.
Matsui is seriously injured and return is doubtful.
Posada is not hitting for power.
Cano and Cabrera are automatic outs.
Now add in these statistical American League rankings:
Ninth in walks taken
Eighth in homeruns
Seventh in extra base hits
Seventh in total bases
Sixth in slugging percentage
These individual and collective failures have marred this entire season. Dragging the entire hopes of a 14th consecutive playoff appearance with it.
Starting Pitching: Living on a Prayer
When the year started, the term that was used to describe the starting rotation was "transition". Using both Phil Hughes and Ian Kennedy was risky proposition considering that never before have two rookies started on a perennial playoff team for a full season and pitched successfully.
Not only did the duo not pitch well while they were here, neither starter won a game in eleven combined starts. More to the fact that they did not pitch well was the fact that neither of them showed any type of progression while they were at the major league level. To go a step further, it was if they were scared at times. Both pitchers fearful of the strike zone and what results the bat hitting the ball may do. Adding insult was the fact that both pitchers found their way to the disabled list. Hughes has yet to return from a cracked rib that he suffered sneezing. Kennedy is back from injury and currently rehabbing in the minor leagues.
I have to believe that the Yankees came to the conclusion if the worst-case scenario ever happened, it would be crippling to their season.
Well, it happened.
This failure created a two-prong problem. It put heavy emphasis on the games started by both Chien Ming-Wang and Andy Pettitte. In May, the team did not know that Mike Mussina, at the age of 39, would emerge as the team’s best pitcher with 11 wins and an ERA under four.
From an organization standpoint, the Yankees were put in a very difficult position. While never mentioning it publicly, the plan was to migrate then-setup man Joba Chamberlain to the starting rotation before the middle of July. The injuries in the rotation sped up the process and by the start of June; he was officially a full time member of the staff.
Lucky for them.
In June, the team got an unfortunate break when Wang severely sprained his foot rounding third base in an interleague game at Houston. Having perhaps his best season, Wang is out at least until September and perhaps the season. Chamberlain’s early success as a starter has lessened the blow of Wang to this point.
Now here comes the problem.
The other two-fifths of the rotation (yes, other people do have to pitch) have been taken up by pitchers who are also-rans that should not be in the rotation of any team vying for a playoff berth or even thinks of having aspirations of winning a World Series.
Darrell Rasner had his "One (or two, or three) Shining Moment", but now is having the fully expected "market correction. Out of extreme desperation (it could not be for any other reason), Sidney Ponson is back for a Yankees second tour, several returns short of approaching Steve Howe status. Though he has pitched well in two of his first three starts, one can hope that he can make it through three more starts before he is jettisoned elsewhere. Anyone putting their trust him over the long haul is setting themselves up for disappointment. We even saw the return of Kei Igawa for one start. Four innings later, we (one would hope) saw the last of him.
No other pitchers in the minor leagues have established themselves as worthy of a chance at the big league level. This creates a situation where two out of every five games, you are hoping the starter can at least give you five innings without being killed. A team cannot win consistently under such a formula. If games are not won by Pettitte, Chamberlain and Mussina, fingers are crossed. Currently, the Yankees rotation is like a firecracker just waiting to explode.
Final Judgment
Can all of these problems be corrected in order to save this season?
My conclusion is no.
The inevitable has finally appeared. All of the factors have merged like a storm and getting out of it this season does not appear to be possible.
Going out into the trade market to add another big bat is not going to do anything if the current roster does not produce, as they have not shown to this point.
Another belief is that the Yankees are having internal discussions as they approach the trading deadline as to how good they really are. One would have to think that there are some in the inner circle who feel that moves made for the purposes of saving this season will go for nothing. Using the belief that this team has reached its cap and cannot go any further.
Would I attempt to make any wholesale changes before July 31 if I were running the Yankees?
No. My unsolicited advice to Brian Cashman would be this:
"Do nothing".
The team is too structurally flawed this season to where just adding one player will turn everything around. A quick shopping list of needs for the team would include help in the outfield, bench, starting pitcher and left-handed reliever. However, to acquire all of those players, you are going to have to give up a plethora of the minor league prospects (assuming you are looking to import quality as opposed to has beens) you are trying to keep in your organization now and have been touting for the last two years. Changing course now for the sake of this one season would look duplicitous and stupid. While not "punting" the season, it is a realistic take you play out this year and you give your team a greater chance to improve the roster by getting rid of bad contracts that expire in each of the next two years. As long your willing to sacrifice a little pride in 2008, the team will be much better off in 2009 and beyond.
Before the year started, I felt that not only would the Yankees not win the World Series, but that they would not make the playoffs. While I still hold that position now, it is clear that to make the postseason this year, either the Tampa Bay Rays or Minnesota Twins will have to choke it away as opposed to the Yankees reaching out and grabbing it themselves. 92 wins is still attainable for this team (which is what I feel will take to gain a playoff berth), and that total is only based on if Tampa Bay or Minnesota play down to that level, allowing a backdoor entry.
While the standings may read that the Yankees are close to the division lead, the reality is that they are further away from the lead that it appears.
One can only hope they will turn it around, unlikely as it may seem.
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