Wednesday, July 23, 2008

MLB Talk: The Halos are shining...when to buy or sell...and random thoughts




All is well in the OC

They are not flashy or spectacular. Bullying you with high-powered offense is not their identity. No one outside of Vladimir Guerrero is someone you would consider a "superstar" player.

In the truest sense, they are a "team".

Every night the Los Angeles Angels go out and try to beat you their way. Very cerebral in the nature in which they score runs, they neglect to stand idly by and wait for the three-run homer. Pressure is what they pride themselves on. The Angels look to force the action on almost every play. Each pitch. Each at bat. Each time a runner is on base is another moment to put pressure on the opposing team. Relax for a split second and you may miss a runner trying to take an extra base and eventually scoring.

The Angels live by an old-school baseball philosophy:

Get them on.
Get them over.
Get them in.

No other team in baseball does it better or more efficient than they do. It is the reason why they have played so many close games this season and have won a large percentage of them as they sit with Major League Baseball’s best record.

With a pitching staff that nearly every night starts a more than competent starter, they can afford to play their style without compromise.

John Lackey still remains its main anchor. After missing the start of the year with an injury, he is amassing perhaps his finest season. Ervin Santana and Joe Saunders, both All Stars, are on pace for 20-win seasons apiece.

Jon Garland, brought over from the White Sox in an offseason trade for shortstop Orlando Cabrera, has added a quality innings eater with a championship pedigree. Jered Weaver rounds out the five-some and on any given night can shut down an opposition.

When it gets late and the Angels have the lead, the starters turn it over to quality bullpen arms Scot Shields and Jose Arredondo. Still don’t have the lead by then? Try your luck as the Angels hand the ball to their potential record setting closer. Francisco Rodriguez (K-Rod) has total 41 saves to this point and is on pace for over 60 (MLB record is 57). With free agency looming for him after the season, Rodriguez is making a case for himself to receive a similar contract to Mariano Rivera. He is one of those handfuls of closers in baseball you place your confidence in getting those final three outs no matter where the game is played.

For all their great play, their season will again be ultimately judged on how they perform in October. The Red Sox have been their kryptonite in two of the last four years. Will this be the year they finally break through?

They certainly have a great chance.

We're going for it! No, let's sell. Wait, what should we do?

It is one of the toughest decisions that an organization has to make every season at the trade deadline.

Knowing that your team could possibly win, but probably will not and having several commodities that other team's value if you chose to make them available.

If you are hopelessly out of the race, then you are already (or should be) in full "sell mode". Try to peddle as many high salary players as you can as a measure of shedding payroll, adding prospects and looking forward to the next season.

Teams that are serious contenders need only to tinker to properly position their team not only for the playoffs, but to win the World Series. (See: Harden, Rich)

Some teams need to make that one big move to change the complexion of their team. (See: Sabathia, CC)

However, in between lays a conundrum that many teams face. They are not bad enough to stay out of the playoff chase. Yet, they are not good enough to compete with the upper echelon clubs to considerably close the gap. Deluding themselves into thinking they are better than what they are, said team will make moves that on the surface look like quality. It is a means of giving their fans (false) hope. By September though, the team still has not made any progress and the only accomplishment is the additional money made in ticket sales that the owner will be pocketing.

By July 31, there will be a team that will have this thinking and will attempt to bolster their roster only to fail miserably.

Other teams choose to cut their losses and not even give their fans the option of having false hope. In the case of the Oakland A's, they were only five games behind the LA Angels before they decided to trade it best pitcher, Rich Harden, to the Chicago Cubs. One week later, Beane followed it up by trading innings workhorse Joe Blanton to the Philadelphia Phillies.

Beane knew his team was not going to be good enough over the remaining games of the season, so why even bother?

The business practice seems sound in nature (personally, I approved of it), but for a team like the A’s, who on a yearly basis have difficulty developing a fan base to come to games even when they were successful, it would strike one as odd that they would be so cavalier in their execution.

While the nature of a fan is always to think there is a chance, sometimes, a little hard reality is needed.

A few random thoughts...ok, more than a few

After seeing a terrific start by Johan Santana wasted by the Mets bullpen in the ninth inning on Tuesday against the Phillies, fans were asking that Santana, who had already thrown 105 pitches in eight inning, to pitch (or at least start) the ninth inning with closer Billy Wagner unavailable.

Listen, if you cannot trust a good, competent relief pitcher with a three run lead (5-2 at the time), at home, against the bottom of a lineup (who to that point was anemic scoring runs) to get the final three outs, then he should not be on the team.

The percentages of saves converted with a three-run lead are so astronomical it is not even worth discussing. STATS INC last year showed the percentage of three run leads blown in the ninth inning are 1%. Yes, you read that right. One percent! What happened at Shea Tuesday night was simply that percentage making an appearance.

You think the Chicago Cubs really want to see the Arizona Diamondbacks in the playoffs again? That is the last team they would want to face if they could help it.

Before the Cubs think about the playoffs, they might want to think about the Milwaukee Brewers first.

Seeing them play for the last week has shown me that they have closed the gap. There are rumors of them pursuing Oakland A's closer Huston Street to be their closer.

Good thing. No team with Salomon Torres as its closer is ever going to win a close postseason game, especially on the road.

Teams are going to find out that they had better win the games not started by that CC Sabathia and Ben Sheets. If they do not, they essentially have no chance considering how both of them have pitched this season.

Just ask the St. Louis Cardinals.

Something is clearly wrong when your team is double digits under the .500 mark, yet is still in contention for the division.

As of this moment, the Colorado Rockies are 13 games under (45-58), but are only 6.5 out of first place.

That is the National League West for you.

Justin Duchscherer is currently sporting a healthy 1.87 ERA. Opponents are hitting just .182 against him, and yet he doesn’t throw harder than 88 MPH. How is this possible?

Bob Gibson he is not. But the numbers are Gibson-esque.

I wonder how much teams are going to read into Matt Holiday’s road splits before they realize he is two different players, yet still pay him 20 million a year.

Ryan Howard is showing how much batting average is meaningless. He leads the NL in home runs and runs batted in despite hitting less than .240. Just think if he actually hit .300.

Dustin Pedroia (aka – Little Gnat) amazes me a hitter. For a player of his midget stature to be able generate the power he does off his bat is amazing. I have to tip my cap to him.

Why is there an extreme shortage of good hitting catchers in baseball?

Fred Wilpon now admits that he screwed the Willie Randolph firing and should have thought about how it would look when it was done.

He is just figuring this out now? It is a little late for a mea culpa Fred.

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