Tuesday, June 3, 2008

MLB Talk: The Rays bring light; the Cubs are on top and All Star selections.


Rays of Hope


They are bunch of young, talented players who are trying to establish themselves in this game of baseball. At the same time, they are not only making noise, but their early success is illuminating around baseball. High ceiling players, drafted in the first round, coming together as a team to make the Tampa Bay Rays one of the season’s early surprises.

As of today, they stand 13 games over .500 and appear poised to stay there for a prolonged period. This is not a team getting a few lucky breaks and making the most of it. This group of Rays has the best collection of young talent anywhere in baseball. Up and down the lineup and in their starting rotation. Believe me, this is no fluke.

Led by veteran Carl Crawford, Tampa features a growing breed of horses ready to run past the league. B.J Upton and Evan Longoria are the center of the young core. Carlos Pena has finally discovered all the talent he had as a youngster in the minors. Johnny Gomes and Akinori Iwamura provide professional at bats each time at the plate.

What about the pitching? Since their existence, it was nowhere to be found. This time, Scott Kazmir leads them. He is not alone. James Shields follows behind him, developing into an All Star. Youngsters Matt Garza and Edwin Jackson are slowly starting to match intelligence with their talent. Jackson, since his start in the leagues with the Dodgers had always been an enigma. He had "20 win" stuff, but had a "20 cent" head and could never be consistent. I always said that if he ever figured out how to throw his pitches for strikes on a consistent basis, he would be tremendous. He has taken that step this season.

And the bullpen? The Rays never knew such a thing existed until this season. Last year, their bullpen ERA was the worst in the history of baseball. One year later, with the additions of Dan Wheeler and Troy Percival, they are shutting the door when they have a lead after seven innings.

How far can they take this? No one knows for sure. Their organization has made sure to lock up their core players for a prolonged period, and their farm system has several major league caliber prospects ready to contribute immediately if the Rays were not concerned about service time and having to pay them too soon.

However it ends, it appears Tampa Bay is no longer going to be bullied by Boston and New York any longer.


It Could (Maybe) Happen

There are many built in advantages when you are playing most of your games against National League opponents. It is also another thing when you have money and choose to utilize that to your advantage.

The Oakland A's called it "Moneyball" in early part of the decade. They used their limited funds to get players who could maximize productivity at minimal cost. The New York Yankees and the Boston Red Sox called it "Moneyball: With Real Money".

The Chicago Cubs chose to play Moneyball with real money much like New York and Boston, though not to that degree. The result? They currently have baseball’s best record.

Featuring six players who possess OPS (on base plus slugging) numbers of .840 and above, they have the NL's best offense. Wearing down pitchers with newfound efficiency by drawing walks and working pitch counts, the results have been staggering. The Cubs now have the largest run differential of any team in baseball.

Compare their offensive success with that of the other National League contenders, and the only team that comes close is the Atlanta Braves, who have four players with OPS of .830 and up.

How does this translate? Consider this. The Cubs have the second highest payroll in the National League (New York Mets lead the NL) at 118 million. How do they rank in their own division? Let’s see:
St. Louis Cardinals: $100 million
Houston Astros: $88 million
Milwaukee Brewers: $81 million
Cincinnati Reds: $74 million
Pittsburgh Pirates: $49 million

The gap between the Cubs and every other team in their division ranges from 18 to 69 million. This means that they should be in control of their division. Not just this year, but on a consistent year in, year out basis if you have smart people making decisions. Only St. Louis is a serious competitor, and even they have spending limits where Chicago does not. Apparently, the people that run the Cubs have just stumbled onto this concept. Old habits die-hard.

With the lack of any viable contender, they should win their division by at least 10 games. If this race is competitive in September, there should be an investigation.

They will make the postseason again this year. But the early problem that they will have is finding a reliable second and third starter who can match up on even terms with the Mets and the Arizona Diamondbacks. The National League team from Chicago can mask this impending problem over 162 games. However, in a best three-of-five, may find their team flawed.

They are off to a great start right now. Just don’t start printing World Series tickets yet.

Yankees/Red Sox vs. The entire National League

All Star fan balloting has always been a joke. I proved it one year on a road trip to Milwaukee. I took 100 All Star ballots and voted for my favorite Yankees regardless if they were deserving of a spot on the team or not. So it does not surprise me that looking at the current AL All Star roster shows that seven of the nine spots are currently occupied by Yankees or Red Sox players.

Its Boston and New York against the entire National League.

Actually, if you combined the two rosters, they would beat the National League. Here would be my ideal lineup.

2B - Pedroia
SS – Jeter
DH – Ortiz
LF – Ramirez
3B – Rodriguez
1B – Youkilis
RF – Matsui
C - Posada
CF – Ellsbury

P – Beckett
P – Matzusaka
P – Wang
P – Lester

RP – Okajima
RP – Papelbon

CP – Rivera

That team would beat any collection of NL stars you could put there. Maybe the fans really do know what they are doing when it comes to these votes.

On serious level though, some people need some serious consideration. Josh Hamilton (2nd in outfield voting) of the Texas Rangers and Carlos Quentin of the White Sox are having fantastic years on offense. For pitchers, Ervin Santana and the now injured Daisuke Matzusaka were having breakout seasons.

It appears another year will past where the National League will lose, and give up home field advantage in the World Series.

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