Sunday, September 14, 2008

MLB Talk: Delgado’s mysterious surge and the toughness of the Rays

Delgado rises from the dead


It was in late April in a game against the Chicago Cubs when I attended at Wrigley Field. The bases were loaded for Carlos Delgado with the New York Mets trailing 3-1.

Delgado, who had been struggling all season, was overmatched and popped up to end the potential threat.

His bat was looking as slow as a 90 year old man jogging outside and had no ability to handle a pitch on the inside half of the plate.

In the bottom half of the inning, Delgado’s legs looked like they were stuck in sand as he was unable to handle a routine groundball, eventually leading to the Cubs pulling away to victory.

For nearly three months of the season, this continued to play out and the fans and media alike wonder if this player had reached the end of his career. Old age had looked to catch up with him.

His struggles coincided with that of Jose Reyes and the entire team as a whole as they found themselves falling behind the Philadelphia Phillies by seven and a half games. Manager Willie Randolph found that his job security was tied into the performance of not only Reyes, but also Delgado, the teams’ middle of the lineup slugger. The team struggled to score runs and he was a major reason why.

In the middle of June, the Mets organization decided that Randolph would take the fall for the teams’ season to date. He was replaced by Jerry Manuel, who used to manage the Chicago White Sox.

On June 27, it all began to turn around for him. In the first game of a two-stadium Subway Series doubleheader, Delgado hit two home runs and drove in nine runs in the Mets 15-6 victory against the Yankees. From that day forward, the fortunes of both Delgado’s season and that of the Mets turned around.

Since that Friday afternoon, Delgado has gone a hitting tear that is beyond ridiculous. His bat has produced so much that it has catapulted the Mets into first place with an eye on the playoffs and has earned serious consideration for National League Most Valuable Player.

How did this happen?


No one really has the answer. It is very difficult to explain how this player, who looked completely awful on both offense and defense for three months has done a complete 180 and looks like the slugger who was on pace for a Hall of Fame career when he was in his prime.

Delgado has hit 24 homers and driven in 69 runs in 70 games (through September 10) since that performance against the Yankees. His bombs have not been for the purpose of tacking on runs (see: Rodriguez, Alex), rather they have happened at key moments that have propelled the Mets to big wins over the summer.

However, it is difficult to watch this performance without wonder about those first three months. It is a very tough charge to prove, but it is my belief that he (and Reyes) in essence each “tanked’ the first three months of the season while Randolph was still the manager.

Now, you may ask how tanking is possible. Even I had to debate for a long time whether this was possible. In baseball, it is very difficult to assess whether or not a player is giving his all. When the pitcher is throwing 95 MPH and needing to react as quickly as one has to in order to make contact at the plate, it likely is best to be concentrating one hundred percent of the time.

But one way to spot effort is on defense. Early on, Delgado looked to be already preparing for his future as a designated hitter in the American League. Suddenly, Randolph is fired, Manuel is hired, and his defense has suddenly looked like that of Will Clark in his prime.

You don’t think that is a coincidence?

He was not diving for balls and making great scoops when Randolph was the manager. Go back, look at the video tape of those games, and contrast that to what he doing out there right now.

It is like watching two completely different players.

At the plate, Delgado has attributed his early season struggles to that of his hand placement when he was at the plate. By placing his hands on the bat in a certain position, he claims to have lost a lot of his leverage on being able to hit a pitch on the inside part of the plate.

Magically, once Randolph was fired, he figured out what his problem was. I am sure that his former manager would have liked if Delgado had figured that problem out before he was given the pink slip.

When things were going bad, he tied the manager’s hands. He could not use him in a platoon situation or even go as far as to outright benching him for fear that he (teammates describe him as the “leader”) would stage a rebellion, cause further team mutiny and threaten to swallow what little life the team had up to that point.

For every out, he would receive intense booing. Internet blogs, sports talk radio, and shows and suits on the Mets owned SportsNet New York wondered aloud what was going on with this player.

Three months later, he is receiving the loudest of cheers. He inspires confidence instead of doubt. Now the media has taken official notice, beginning their campaign for Delgado’s MVP candidacy.

While somewhat musing, I find it difficult to run out with buttons and posters saying “DELGADO FOR MVP!” Not after his actions of the first three months of the season. It appears very much (though difficult to prove) that he “tanked” the first near half of the season by not fully committing himself to his craft, thus putting his team in peril and his manager on the chopping block.

Now, those same fans who hated him cheer him wildly as if nothing had ever happened. Obviously, they do not care because at the end of the day, it is all about wins and losses. But it would be very reasonable to suggest that had Delgado hit even half of what his doing right now, not only would the Mets not have had to come back from their early season hole to the Phillies, but they would be further ahead in first place than the few games they find themselves up right now.

Is he taking steroids? We cannot be one hundred percent certain that he is not. All baseball players have opened themselves up for this scrutiny based on their actions the last 15 years. This is made even more so when a players numbers skyrocket so exponentially over their career norms that it is difficult not to notice the seismic shift.

As the Mets close in on making up for last year’s collapse with an NL East title this year, they have Delgado to thank for getting them there.

Mysterious as it seems.


Ray Tough

It could have been very easy for the Tampa Bay Rays to continue their free falling and allow the defending champion Red Sox to overtake them in the American League East.
They had lost the first game of their three game series at Fenway Park and were only leading the division by one-half game.

In the second game on Wednesday night, their setup reliever Dan Wheeler gave up a two-run homer to Jason Bay to turn a 3-2 lead into a 4-3 deficit with close Jonathan Papelbon coming into the game in the ninth inning to clinch first place for Boston.

But then a funny thing happened.

Tampa scored two runs off Papelbon to win the game and preserve their lead.

On Thursday, they went to 14 innings before once again outlasting their chases 4-2 to leave Fenway with a 2 ½ game lead in the standings (three in the loss column) with under three weeks to play.

Not bad for a team that was 0-7 before the ninth inning of Tuesday’s game and staring 0-8 right in the face.

A team that has overlooked all season and dismissed as too young and dumb to pull this off are looking like they just might.

Winning that series sent a message to the rest of the American League that yes, if you did not believe before, you better believe now.

The Rays are for real, and the possibility of them going to the World Series is very possible. On paper, their offense does not look like that of the fat-cat, low performance New York Yankees, but when it comes to shutting down an opposing teams lineup, Tampa can do it about as good as anyone in baseball.

Scott Kazmir and Andy Sonnanstine pitched tremendous games in a place where they have historically struggled. Their bullpen, entrusted with keeping leads or the score tied, have done their job admirably after being the worst bullpen in baseball history statistical wise the previous season.

Looking ahead, the Rays can look to set up their playoff rotation, look for Kazmir and James Shields in Game 1 and 2 followed by Matt Garza and Sonnanstine in Games 3 and 4. That quartet will be able to compete with any of the three other playoff participants. With their likely opponent to be either the Chicago White Sox or Minnesota, they will be favored to win their first playoff series in team history.

They have been baseball most inspirational story. As October looms, their story will only get more prominence.

Random Baseball Thoughts

When the Los Angeles Angels won the AL West last Tuesday, they were a comfortable 16 games in front of the second place Texas Rangers.

How is that for coasting?

For the Angels though, their moment of truth is going to come when the Boston Red Sox show up there in the playoffs.

Speaking of the Red Sox, when you can throw out Josh Beckett, Jon Lester and Dice-K Matsuzaka in the first three games of a playoff series, you have a chance to repeat as World Champions.

The Arizona Diamondbacks may have a young team, but they have too good of players to be under .500 in the NL West.

I think the Washington Nationals are setting themselves up pretty well to be the National League’s version of the Kansas City Royals.

Cliff Lee is 22-2! That is Ron Guidry-esque.

Not since Pedro Martinez in 1999 has there been a pitching performance like Lee’s.

For as great as Josh Hamilton was in the first half of the season, his OPS is only .910.

Perhaps hitting all of those blasts at Home Run Derby at Yankee Stadium had a negative effect on him.

The New York Mets have lost 11 games when leading after eight innings and have blown 27 save opportunities this season.

How the hell are they still in first place?

That’s because the Philadelphia Phillies have yet to be good enough to take full advantage.

But there are two weeks left and a one game playoff at Citizens Bank Park is likely.

One more thing on the Mets:

No team with Luis Ayala as its closer is going to go anywhere in the postseason.

Say what you will about Billy Wagner (and his performance this year was not good, and partially the reason Willie Randolph was fired), but at least there is some small sense of confidence when he comes into the game.

And for those that claim that “Well, Wagner has not done well in big spots either so he would have not have done better”, what you are saying in essence is they are both on equal par as closers in baseball.
This notion is ridiculous.

You cannot convince me that you have the same confidence in Wagner as you would in Ayala when it comes to the final three outs.

STATS INC tracks the closer stat as the following when entering the ninth inning:

1 run lead = 85% chance of victory
2 run lead = 95% chance of victory
3 run lead = 99% chance of victory

Point being, you can have almost anyone closing a game with a two or three run lead assuming the pitcher is competent.

However, for the Mets, this is been a very difficult task. The 1% and 5% in terms of holding leads seem to plague them only.

Back in July, I mentioned that there would be a team would make numerous moves in an attempt to reach the playoffs only for them to fall flat on their face.

Well, we found that team.

Who was it? The New York Yankees.

I am very excited for the National League playoffs this year.

Having the Cubs, Dodgers and possibly the Mets and Phillies makes for a great combination of matchups.

Sorry small/middle market teams, but you do not matter as matter much when your teams in it. No one is breaking the doors down to see San Diego, Colorado or Milwaukee.

Maybe it is just my big market sports mentality.

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