Monday, April 6, 2009

Yankee Talk Update – The 2009 Season has begun


The blog got through Spring Training injury free and is ready to begin a full run for the Yankees season.

Here’s what I’ll do. Each week, I will have a Yankee column along with a feature story bi-weekly. For the first three games of the year, I will have a game story. The same will happen after the Yankees home opener at the new Stadium.

Each Yankees-Red Sox series will have expansive coverage as well as the Subway Series games against the Mets. Also, I will do the same for any road trips I decide to make during the season.

MLB Talk will return in its bi-weekly form as I go around the league to track what is going on in baseball.

And if any breaking news like trades or other drama comes out, you can turn here for coverage.

PLAY BALL!!

Friday, April 3, 2009

Yankee Talk: Statistically Analyzing 2009

Carl looks at the Yanks season by the numbers


I do this every year. Before the start of every season, I take a look at the Yankees and try to draw conclusions as to what their statistical output will be.

Sometimes I will be right on the on the money, and other times I will bomb completely. However, over the last four seasons, my prediction for Yankees victories has come within two victories of the eventual total. Last year, I predicted the Yankee would win only 90 games, and they finished with an 89-73 record. This year of course, we are hoping for the team a better record, but as perhaps the teams worst critic, I have to use honesty in my evaluations.

With that, here we go!

Yankees over/under for wins: 94.5

OVER - Last year the team underperformed due to having below mediocre starters pitching games for too long a period. This year, with the acquisition of CC Sabathia and AJ Burnett to go along with Chien-Ming Wang, Andy Pettitte and Joba Chamberlain give the Yankees the best starting rotation in baseball. This allows the team to run off more winning streaks due to not having consistent starting pitchers to throw out there. The bullpen looks strong, and with improved defense at first base and in the outfield to go along with an offense that cannot be any worse than it was last year, look for the Yanks to make the playoffs this season in a tremendously difficult American League East.

Yankees wins over Tampa Bay: 9.5

OVER – The team was competitive against Tampa last year with mediocre pitching. The Rays last year had problems against premium starters. Now that the Yankees have enough of them to throw on any night, their success should improve.

Yankees wins over Boston: 9.5

UNDER – The Rivalry is always close and goes either way each season. For me, the bullpens are what will decide these games. To me, Boston’s bullpen is better than the Yankees are now. However, with reserves in the minors, this has a chance to change by July.

Derek Jeter batting average: .300


UNDER – Jeter is aging (perhaps naturally) and has been declining in production as a player. This is likely to continue as he has turned into a “de facto singles hitter”. He will likely start off slow and pick up performance as the weather warms up.

Robinson Cano RBI’s: 80

OVER – After embarrassing himself last year, Cano appears to have learned from his loafing and has matured. If that is the case, look for him to emerge as one of the premier second basemen in the league along with Dustin Pedroia. If he can improve his patience compared to prior years, this will help him be more selective on pitches and give him more opportunities to drive in runs.

Mark Teixeira’s home runs: 35


UNDER – Though people may think he is a slugger because of his numbers, he is more apt to grind out an at bat and get on base and slap a single than choose to be power crazy. Because the pressure isn’t tremendously on him and he appears to be acclimated to the team, he should fit in well and thus will not try and think he needs to yank home runs to justify the $180 million the team is paying him. Looking for a 32 home run and 135 RBI season.

Alex Rodriguez’s OPS: .999

UNDER – Despite the fact that A-Rod may not care about who
likes him or not, he is going to experience a very harsh season from fans at home and on the road. There has been nothing to indicate that he is not soft and impervious to such criticism. After he returns from the hip injury he will need time to adjust assuming he is completely healthy. It has been my contention that he will not finish the season with the Yankees due to the lingering effects that are likely to hamper him, thus diminishing his power.

Jorge Posada games caught: 100

OVER – Posada has an unbelievable work ethic and has done everything to rehab from last season’ shoulder injury. He appears healthy and ready to contribute. Even at the advanced
catcher’s age of 37, the fiery leader is going to show why he is the best offensive catcher in the American League before last season. Can he suit up over 100 times in 2009? I think so.

Xavier Nady/Nick Swisher’s combined production: 30.5 HR’s and 120 RBI’s

OVER – This is all dependent on how much time the energetic Swisher gets in the lineup. If his playing time is limited than this is not going to happen. However, if Girardi manages this correctly, Nady will get sizable amount of at bats and Swisher will be able to spell Damon and Gardner along with Nady at all points of the season. Think of him as a super-sub. Even though he had a terrible season last year, keen eye at the plate and should be able to translate into better success with a more high-powered lineup in pinstripes.

Brett Gardner batting average: .275

UNDER – Unless he turns into Brett Butler (former Mets, Giants and Dodgers centerfielder) and completely over-performs, I cannot see him hitting above that number. He will be very good defensively and steal some bases, but the Yankees will still be looking to upgrade the position by the trade deadline.

Total Yankees runs scored: 830

OVER (slightly) – This is no longer the juggernaut that scored over 900 and near 1,000 runs. Better pitching in the division, the ban on amphetamines, and the slowly dissolving usage of performance drugs all bring the uber-offenses down. My prediction is going to be dependent on whether the team will produce with runners in scoring position with better efficiency that in 2008. I’m going to say “yes” because I feel that the team will not feel as much pressure to score plenty of run because they know that with the pitching staff that they have, they will be able to relax and always be in the ballgame and can pull one out late if needed.

PITCHING

CC Sabathia wins: 17.5

OVER – Though his ERA will be higher than it was in the National League (who can top 1.65?), with the expected runs given to him by the offense, he will be able to have a comfort level to where he does not need to throw a shutout or give up one run in a given night. He will start off a little slow, but will pick it up from the middle of May and go on a lengthy streak of great performance landing him with 21 wins.

AJ Burnett wins: 15.5


OVER – If Burnett wins more than 16 games, the Yankees will win more than 100 games this year. No one really knows what to expect from him. He has all the talent in the world and is the perfect hard throwing, miss bats pitcher that is needed to take down the Red Sox. In Spring Training, he has been lights out. Can he translate it into the regular season? Hopefully he can.

Joba Chamberlain innings pitched: 150

OVER – The Yankees will find this out right around the middle of July. Unless he pitches like Dasiuke Matsuzaka did last year and pitch 5 innings at a high pitch count rate, he will surpass his cap and force the organization into making a decision about him.

Total starting staff innings pitched: 930

OVER – The team has legitimately four pitchers who can give 200 innings. Add Joba into that and that brings this total over the 930 number. By my numbers, I have the Yankees five starters calculated to throw just over 68% of the team’s innings. Last year, that number was below 60%. This means that you have most of those innings are being placed in the hands of far less quality pitchers (relievers) than starters. In the case of the Yankees, putting the ball in the hands of those five mean that you will be getting good quality for those innings, thus leading to more wins and entry into the postseason.

Brain Bruney WHIP: 1.25

OVER – Until he can show me that he can consistently not walk people, then I know he is set to break out and live up to the potential in his right arm. Consider me pessimistic for now.

Jose Veras appearances: 70

OVER – He pitched very well for most of the season before tiring late. The hard slider and power curve to compliment his fastball made him a good pitcher last year and should be a trusted reliever of Joe Girardi’s pen.

Phil Coke’s strikeouts: 60

OVER – Way over!!! This guy is a hidden gem that will be uncovered this season. Maybe last September and this spring was not a fluke. Of course, those are the two worst time to judge a player. But I am going to go “all in” and bank that he will be the best reliever outside of Mariano Rivera this season.

Mariano Rivera ERA: 2.20

UNDER – Does this man ever age? I thought coming back from surgery was going to hamper some of the effectiveness that he would have, but instead he looks strong and is ready to go once again. Even injured last year, he pitched to a 1.40 ERA and a near 13 to 1 BB to K ratio. At some point, age should age up with him. But until it does, you cannot doubt Mariano.

Yankees total runs given up: 700

UNDER – If this number is over, than the Yankees will not make the playoffs. The pitching staff is too good to give up that amount. From the rotation to the power arms in the bullpen, this is a strong staff all around. For the team to comfortably make the playoffs, the run differential needs to be at least 150 runs in favor. If the number is 200 and above, then 95 wins will be the minimum the Yanks get to. Anything more than that would put them on pace for 100 wins.

Yankees playoff wins: 2.5

OVER – Unlike previous seasons where those teams couldn’t pitch worth a damn, this team has power arms who miss bats and that is what wins in October. While they will either win the AL East or come up two games short and be a wild card team, I forecast them playing the Cleveland Indians in the Division Series with them advancing to the AL Championship Series against the Boston Red Sox. Yes, “The Rivalry” will be back on in 2009 with a World Series berth at stake. I will not predict anything else past that.

Wednesday, April 1, 2009

Yankee Talk: "The Joba Story"

Joba in rotation good for some, not for others

For the last year and a half, this argument has been the topic of hour’s long discussion on talk radio shows and message boards. Sometimes, this bleeds its way into the broadcast.

It is unavoidable.

Should Joba Chamberlain be better served to the Yankees as a starting pitcher, or as Mariano Rivera's top setup man?

Points and counterpoints have made on each side, pleading its case as to why one or the other should happen. They will list statistical evidence as to why this should be the case and state that a pitcher who give you between 170 and over 200 innings is invariably better than a pitcher who is only giving you likely no more than 80 innings for the season.

The counter to the argument is that while Chamberlain may not pitch as many innings, the fact he can come into 80 games and slam the door in the 8th inning leading up to Rivera is much more impact than the 25 to 30 starts he would give you and likely not complete anyway due to the advent of innings limits and pitch counts.

So this was the conundrum facing the Yankees.

Do they allow this talent to try and develop into their own version of Josh Beckett? Or, do they pair him with Mariano Rivera to give them a devastating 8th-9th inning combination?

Smartly, the Yankees decided on the route of the starter.

Very good starting pitchers are difficult to find in a normal sense. Finding ace pitchers are nearly impossible unless you are drafting high, get lucky, or in some cases, spending $161 million to acquire it. Few teams have that kind of coin lying under a mattress.

So when you have a pitcher such as Chamberlain, who was drafted and developed as a starting pitcher before the middle of the 2007 season when he was converted to reliever out of necessity, you need to give him every chance to see if he can succeed in that role before considering any other option.

Last year, the Yankees stupidly tried to convert him during the season, foolishly using the regular season as an extended spring training to build up with stamina. He would start 12 games, pitch to an ERA of 2.76 and looking to developing tremendously before succumbing to a shoulder injury in a start in Texas in August and he missed five weeks.

This year, there would be no such drama. However, the question of what do with him bubbled up again when the team signed free agents CC Sabathia and AJ Burnett, resigned Andy Pettitte and had Chien-Ming Wang return from a season ending injury. Having four quality starters is more than what some teams can put out there, and thus could have allowed the Yankees to be flexible considering their depth.

Instead, the organization chose the starter route from Day 1, giving Chamberlain ample time to prepare himself for him role in 2009. He will be on an innings limit of around 150, with flexibility in the event of postseason play.

Back to the debate, it would seem to be an open-shut case as far as a starter over reliever, but even I took a while to convert over to this side of argument several years ago.

When you watch baseball, you are more apt to see the end and fixate in your mind that as opposed to the totality of the game that night. If the bullpen comes into the game in the 6th or 7th inning and blows the game, the fact that the starting pitcher was not effective enough to go deep into the game should also be looked at as to how important of a commodity having a premium, top-level starter truly is.

If have a pitcher the likes of Johan Santana, Roy Halladay, Josh Beckett and CC Sabathia, on most nights you can assure yourself of getting the 7 innings needed to save your bullpen. My theory has always been "the less relief pitchers I see, the better".

The Yankees are banking on Chamberlain to be one of "those guys" if not next year, but in future seasons. This is not a "2009 project", but it is long range vision.

For the only issue now is whether pitching this large bulk of innings will lead to injury. Many teams passed on him in the 2006 amateur draft because of such concerns despite his high level of talent (otherwise he would have been gone before the 44th pick and not Ian Kennedy, who was taken 17th). His shoulder injury he suffered last year only added to those worries.

In spring training, the velocity on his fastball has been clocked between 88-92 MPH. This is a far cry from the 96 to 98 that we are accustomed to seeing him at. Perhaps this is a sign of him needing to pace him for fear of injury, knowing that now he is going to be required to pitch 90 to 110 pitches a start, he cannot treat pitching as if this were football and attempt to strike everyone out.

But does some of his effectiveness get taken away if has to pace himself? No one knows the answer to this question until the season starts and he gets on the mound. It will be just one of those subplots to track through this season.

"The Joba Story"

Monday, March 16, 2009

Yankee Talk: Looking to write a good “Pen” story

Yanks bullpen this season's x-factor for 2009

Let’s take the idea that great starting wins games and keep to that.

Yet, why don’t we add this caveat: A great starting rotation is only complimented by how well its relief corps is. If those guy down in the bullpen show severe leakage, then not only is a great start ruined, but your team loses the game and it has a damaging effect on your team over the course of a season.

Do I have to pitch eight innings or throw a complete game? My bullpen isn’t holding the leads I'm giving them now!

Having a great staff is two-fold. You obviously need to have the good consistent start from your pitcher, which the Yankees have solidified, but the bullpen needs to hold the lead that eventually will lead to victory at the end of the night.

As an example, last season, the New York Mets relief corps blew 29 saves for a team that finished one game behind the eventual World Series champion Philadelphia Phillies. Alter the course of just a few of those games and the Phillies are not in the playoffs, the Mets are, and perhaps they wind up going all the way and winning it all.

Ok, perhaps that would not have happened, but perhaps a Mets fan can dream that.

It was made impossible because the team had a bullpen roster that was so bad there was no one available to acquire in the season that was any better than the bad pitcher they already had on the roster. Mix in the volatility of pitching in New York and finding the "right guy" is very difficult.

The Yankees' relief corps had a 3.78 ERA in 2008 - seventh best in the majors and fifth best in the American League - despite being forced into heavy duty by a shaky starting rotation. Their bullpen pitched 543 1/3 innings, the second-highest total in the American League and sixth-highest in the majors. That's why when you look at the Yankees going into this season, it is the bullpen that will likely have the biggest bulls-eye on their chest from us fans as the team looks to return to the postseason.

The group, outside of the indomitable Mariano Rivera, is made up of young pitchers that have been homegrown that possess impressive physical gifts and performed very well last year. However, as the month of the calendar sprung to August, the pen began to leak serious oil and some of the setup men either by youth or by over usage, became ineffective.

This is why plenty of chatter continues to exist why Joba Chamberlain should be used as a late inning reliever instead of a fifth starter. Having some like him who was so great in that role in each half of the last two seasons, to team up with Rivera tells the opposition the following:

"Score before the 7th inning or else its over!"

It is a very intimidating thing to face when you consider the good rotation the Yankees already have. But for now, Chamberlain resides in the rotation and it is left to the men in the pen to get the job done.

There is no main leader of this crew. With performance, one of the pitchers will emerge as the eighth inning setup man. It will be Jose Veras, Brian Bruney or Edwar Ramirez. In total, Manager Joe Girardi is going to carry 12 pitchers. Once you subtract the five starters and Rivera, which leaves you with six spots to fill.

Each man pitched very well last year despite battling occasional bouts of inconsistency. There ability to miss bats and strike hitters out makes them worthy contributors to the late innings. As it stands, Bruney is the leading candidate to take the ball with the task of getting the game to Rivera.

Bruney had last 20 pounds before last season and pitched well before injuring his foot fielding a groundball in a game at Chicago and miss nearly four months. Upon returning, he picked up right where he left off. In total, he appeared in 32 games, pitched 34 1/3 innings and amassed an impressive 1.83 ERA and 33 strikeouts (0.99 WHIP). He has come into camp 15 pounds lighter again and it the best shape of his career. At the age of 26, perhaps his maturity has caught up to his talent. The problem has always his lapses where the pitches do not find the strike zone. His problem walking batters was a problem in 2007, but improved in 2008.

Jose Veras was another pitcher who pitched very well during most the season last year. In 2008, he pitched the seventh inning in front of Kyle Farnsworth before he was traded to the Detroit Tigers from Ivan Rodriguez. For the season, he performed well in 57 2/3 innings, striking out 63 batters and ending up with a 3.59 ERA (1.40 WHIP). He possess an upper 90’s fastball and beautiful 12 to 6 breaking ball. Yet, like Bruney, could not always keep it in the strike zone. With nearly 4.5 walks per nine innings, his control does get out of place whenever he is not in the proper mechanics. Hopefully with a season under his belt, he’ll be able to improve.

Edwar Ramirez is an interesting reliever in that he is as Michael Kay likes to say, “He is like the little girl with the curl.”

Last year he finished with a 3.90 ERA in 55 1/3 innings, striking out 63 batters (1.19 WHIP). There are times when he very good and his changeup fool hitters immensely. However, like the other Yankee relievers, when he is not throwing strikes, Ramirez, more than any other relievers is susceptible to being hit harder than anyone else. He rarely tops 92 MPH on the radar, thus he relies on getting ahead in the count and then utilizing his changeup to rack up two strike counts and eventual strikeouts. Nothing illustrated this more than in a game against the Los Angeles Angels last August. With two outs, Ramirez inexplicably lost control of his pitches and proceeded to load the bases and (now Yankee) Mark Texieira came to the plate. He got behind 2-0 and was forced to come over the plate with his heat lacking fastball over the middle of the plate.

Result? Grand slam.

Perhaps it is best if he used in small doses. His deceptive changeup is among the best in baseball. However, everything works off his ability to get strike one. If he can do that, his ability to make hitters look foolish with the change up goes up (hence the 10.25 K/9 rate. Hitters hit over .360 when the count was 1-0, amongst the highest in the league.

Those three men will take the bulk of the load this season. In the minor leagues rest some pitchers who will look to come in a make an impact much like Chamberlain did in 2007 and Veras did last year. David Robertson is a vying candidate after coming to the show last year


In September, Coke came up from the minors to show the Yankees what he can do and left a very lasting impression. The hard throwing 25 year old left hander threw 14 2/3 innings, struck out 14 batters and finished with a 0.61 ERA (0.68 WHIP). His hard fastball was tough on left handed hitters and combined with veteran Damaso Marte, provide the Yankees with good balance from both sides and depth to where relievers will not be overworked.

From Bruney, Ramirez and Veras, we subtract the number six by three. Add youngster Phil Coke and Damaso Marte into the mix and that leaves one spot. That is typically set for a long reliever to fill innings and that battle is being waged by veteran Brett Tomko and Dan Giese, who pitched for the Yankees last year in spot starts and relief appearances. To his credit, he didn’t stink out the joint.

When you add in the upgrades in the starting rotation along with the return of Chien Ming Wang, you have three starters (Sabathia, Burnett and Wang) with the ability to go seven or even eight innings a night. This is so very vital of the course of a long season because when they take the ball that deep into a game consistently, that allows for the men in the pen to be used less and therefore be more effective.

It makes you a better team.

Last year, the lack of quality starting pitching overexposed the relief core. This has been a problem over the last five seasons. When a pitcher can only go six innings (which has been right around the average – if not less – for Yankee starters), that means you have to get a minimum of nine outs from your bullpen to win games. Do that consistently over a course of time and no matter how many relief pitchers you have, you will tire your pen out.

All one has to do is look at the extreme over-usage of pitchers like Paul Quantrill, Tom Gordon, Tanyon Sturtze, Ron Villone, Scott Proctor and Luis Vizcaino as prime examples of pitchers who fell into this category. It takes more than one or two guys to make a successful bullpen. But it also takes a good starting staff to make those pitchers more effective.

This year, the Yankees project to have the ability to do both.


Start well…and finish well.

Friday, March 13, 2009

Yankee Talk: First A-Rod’s lip…now his hip sends the Yanks on a trip

Rodriguez is down, but the Bombers aren’t out


You know, I try not to write about A-Rod.

I really don’t.

It’s not as if I am trying to pick on him. I mean, he is one of my own players and by laundry; I am forced to root for him to succeed because with that, the Yankees are a more successful team because of what his contributions bring.

Sure, I may rip him more than I have any player that has ever won two MVP awards in five seasons in pinstripes. He is nowhere near Kevin Brown, Rondell White or Felix Heredia putdown status.

I really gave it to those guys. Hey, they had it coming and never failed to disappoint by consisting performing like dogs.

However, at a certain point, it gets draining. The story never changes. You want to try to focus on something else and yet the story comes right back to where it started. It is as if we are in quick sand, unable to go anywhere. When A-Rod creates news, he goes and takes us all down with him.

What went from having a simple cyst removed from hip turned into a tear in the hip of his labrum that will now keep him out for the next six to nine weeks, leaving the Yanks in a situation where they will not have their cleanup hitter for at least the first quarter of the season. This coincides with the team’s newly imported number three hitter Mark Texieira normally struggles early in the season before picking up steam as the weather warms up.

Tex may want to change that.

Many people seem to think that my prevailing thought is somehow crazy, as if this couldn’t be possible. That Alex Rodriguez not on the Yankee team for a minimum of at least five weeks (if not more) is a decisive blow to the team’s chances of winning the AL East and/or gaining entry into the playoffs.

The question they ask is the following:

“How can you replace the production that he brings to the lineup?”

The answer: “You don’t.”
But anyone that is living under the previous question’s logic obviously did not pay attention to how the team’s offense operated during those days. People talk about it a lot and always want to go back to it, yet do not have an understanding or appreciation for how that team was constructed to score runs.

Those teams were greater than the sum of their parts. Taken as individuals and they were never as great on their own merits as those old Cleveland Indians lineups that had Kenny Lofton, Roberto Alomar, Jim Thome and Manny Ramirez. However, working as a team together, no one in the world could stop them. It is time for the Yankees to reach back in that reservoir which is their past and draw strength from that.

Believing in each other and trusting the next guys in the lineup to come through with that next hit instead of solely focusing one’s thoughts on whether A-Rod is going to come in and in essence bailout the team. The team is too good to need to have that happen. The only way this is not possible is if age has finally caught up to Johnny Damon and Derek Jeter. Injuries limiting Hideki Matsui and Jorge Posada. A lack of consistent offense from the centerfield position and the continued downward spiral of Robinson Cano.

Rodriguez’s production is going to be replaced by any one player. It traces back to the Michael Lewis book titled Moneyball. In it, Oakland Athletics General Manager Billy Beane discussed how the team was going to find way to work around the loss of then first baseman star Jason Giambi, who months earlier agreed to sign a seven-year deal with the Yankees. Beane would go on to say that only certain parts of him could be replaced to a degree to where his loss is not a complete blow.

For example, you may not score as many runs, but you can take measures to prevent the giving up of runs. Having great defense can make up for some offensive shortcomings. In previous years, the Yankees dismissed the concept of outfield defense when they had Matsui and Bernie Williams out there along with Gary Sheffield. Bobby Abreu did not do all that much better. Now, having Damon in left, young Brett Gardner in center and either Nick Swisher or Xavier Nady in right, the defense has upgraded to the point when runs can be saved rather than given away.

Having Texieira at first base over Jason Giambi is immense. While Giambi was somewhat of a productive offensive hitter, (except when he was hitting .204 with runners in scoring position). His broken down body and inability to throw cost the team numerous run over the course of a season because of his inability to stop balls from turning into base hits and his lack of mobility allow hits down the line that turned into extra base hits. The rest of the infield is solid, so collectively, the team should be able to be better on defense for the first time in about eight years.

You know it also doesn’t hurt when you are projected on paper to have the best pitching staff in the league despite competing in the hellish AL East. Given me a staff that allows me to consistently hold down the opposition on a nightly basis, and I’ll find a way to create enough offense to score and then lock the game down after the seventh inning.

Can there be an up-tick in offense from Cano and Jeter compared to last year? Will Nady be a consistent producer over a full season? Will Posada be healthy enough to contribute 120 games? Will Brett Gardner in center be able to hit enough to stay in the lineup?

If the answer is yes to all of those questions, then they will make up for Rodriguez’s loss easily.

Will there be many “winning ugly” games?

Sure.

But this is a results oriented business and all that matters is the W. Style points are not awarded here. No one is looking for that. Just win and that is all that matters.

Taking away a player who can win an MVP for you should be a significant blow. With all the off-season moves, there is no doubt that his loss can be made up. The chances are so great that a chance exist where you will not even notice the difference.

While Alex goes to get well, the rest of the Yanks can go about their business and win without any distractions or drama hanging around.

This is a good thing.

Sunday, March 8, 2009

Yankee Talk: Girardi Needs To Make This Work

Message to Joe: Win!


It would have been crazy for anyone to seriously think that when Joe Girardi took over for Joe Torre prior to the start of the 2008 season.

The ultimate “Joe Cool” that was Torre was now being replaced by “Fiery Joe”, with most of the Yankees brass under the somewhat laughable impression that the team needed extra motivation and a “kick in the pants.”

Girardi was expected to light a fire under veteran players who already set in their ways. Most of them were already over the hill and others simply just underperformed.

Then there was the case of injuries. Lots of them. It started with Alex Rodriguez missing month, then Jorge Posada missing most of the season and the final blows came when Chien-Ming Wang had his season ended rounding third base and coming up lame as his foot gave out, and Joba Chamberlain would miss a month with a shoulder aggravation in Texas.

However, in between all that, you saw the day in and day out operations of man who appeared better suited to be an Army general than a baseball manager. The football mentality that he tried to instill on his team failed miserably. Of course, having pitchers Phil Hughes and Ian Kennedy starting 40 percent of your games in the month of April would have given any manager problems. Yet, here was a man who was going to attempt to bring a full style makeover to a club that he played for during the old championship days.

What he may have skipped over in the managerial manual was that there was more that went into the game than simple in-game tactics. How some people glossed over this still makes no sense to me. Girardi was never a calming influence when things got skittish last year. Instead, Girardi took the losses even more personally and wore his emotions on his face; never giving off a sign of reassurance that everything would work themselves out.

From eliminating junk food in the clubhouse and replacing them with healthier foods, to tirades that only seemed to make the anti-Torre crowd happy that “emotion” was finally being shown, to his dealings with the media, it all seemed very rocky. For a man that garnered Manager of the Year just two seasons prior, it was as if he was in the deep end of the pool for the very first time.

This certainly wasn’t Miami anymore.

He could get away with that kind of stuff when no one is paying attention and there is no extensive media coverage. Employing those same tactics with the Yankees was a recipe designed for failure.

I remember saying this last year when describing Girardi as a manager early in the season:

Over the first 25 games of the year, when the team lost, it was decisive. The wins in that time followed a very simple formula:Great start by a pitcher for six or seven innings.Joba for the eighth.Mo for the ninth.Not very difficult, right? Any manager with a wired brain that has played MLB for XBOX probably could have managed the team on those nights.

As the season went along, we saw his skills as a communicator revealed. It turned out he didn’t have any. His working with the media was often times uncomfortable, unworkable, and as the losing and injuries mounted, filled with tension.

When Hughes was not pitching well in April, two hours before the game, Girardi emphatically intimated that he was staying in the rotation. Two hours later, he was headed for the disabled list, missing the next three and a half months with a rib fracture that Hughes claims he got while sneezing.

It was an outright lie. The only thing he could do was plead ignorance.

When New York Post baseball columnist Joel Sherman pressed Girardi on details of a team meeting he had with his players, the manager snapped.

In Minnesota, he sat left fielder Johnny Damon down the day after he went 4 for 5 in a Yankees win. Girardi claims he told Damon of the change. The Yankees went on to lose 4-0 that night. When Damon was asked about being sat, he said he wasn’t told by the manager he was sitting. When Girardi was then made aware that Damon said he wasn’t aware, the New Joe had to uncover another excuse to make up for another communications gaffe.

Yet all of these instances were nothing compared to his handling of Robinson Cano in 2008. Cano had underperformed the entire season and had consistent lapses in the field on defense. Anyone with two eyes could notice what was going on and yet Girardi continued to deny this problem. It was only after the team had been close to eliminated in September, it was then where the manager took a stand and sat him on the bench for several games.

Why do it then? It made zero sense. He had already gotten away with pulling that nonsense for the previous five months without any reprimand. Now you are going to play “tough guy”. It was disingenuous to say the least.

By the way, did I mention that the Yankees did not make the playoffs last year?

Girardi got through poor communication, lack of offense and few healthy pitchers to amass 89 wins. Now, with the team being fortified with significant pitching acquisitions (CC Sabathia, AJ Burnett) and offensive thump (Mark Texieira), the Yankees now amass the best one through five staffs in the Major Leagues, critical for getting through the new meat grinder that is the AL East.

The offense should improve from last year because it cannot be any worse. An offense designed to score nearly 950 runs did not even score 800. More nights seemingly overmatched, than clawing for every run they could muster.

This is why it is on Girardi to blend this team together. He cannot say he does not have the talent.

The players are there. The offense and pitching will work off each other.

The pitching is there.

Last time I looked, Mariano Rivera is still closing games.

Getting to the American League Championship Series should be a minimum requirement. After that, roll the dice and take your chances.

Simply put, its Girardi job to win…or else.

Friday, March 6, 2009

Yankee Talk: Pitching, Pitching and more Pitching


Yanks finally get back to winning formula with off-season upgrades

To say watching the Yankees pitching staff over the last five years has been a joy would be offensive.

While occasionally having its good days, there were too many clunkers and mediocre performances mixed in with the occasional game knowing that the team had no chance to win when Pitcher X was on the mound.

From having to see Kevin Brown in Game 7 in 2004 old, battered and beaten, to Jaret Wright in Detroit in Game 4 of the Division Series in 2006, up to creaky Roger Clemens in Game 3 in 2007 against the Indians.

It always seemed as if the team was fighting its own uphill battle. First with themselves and then the opponent.

You knew that teams realistic chances of winning it all were significantly hampered by the pitchers the Yankees were throwing on the mound in big situations. Just because they are Yankees doesn’t mean they are good enough.

This off-season, an opportunity opened up for the team to fortify their rotation with high-end talent. No longer falling for the magic in a bottle types such as Jon Lieber, Aaron Small, Shawn Chacon and hoping for an old Clemens to find the fountain of youth at his creaky age.

It had become obvious that the team needed pitchers who could miss bats. Over the last six years, the pitching staff’s strikeout numbers had been declining precipitously. Having too many balls in play while having a shaky defense creating more scoring opportunities for the opponent. You would much rather have pitchers who can strike hitters out because that limits the ability of the opponent to allow the sometimes-fluky nature that is baseball to come into play.

With that in mind, and seeing the previous years results, just by coincidence the Yankees targeted the top two pitchers on the free agent market. The team needed a bonafide ace pitcher and another pitcher who is a hard thrower that can miss bats and be able to have success in the American League.

CC Sabathia would cost $160 million, but to the Yankees, no price was too big. Should they have made the trade for Johan Santana last year? Of course. Now, the price had gone up and the team was desperate. They saw that Sabathia had been an incredible workhorse over the past two seasons. He won the Cy Young award in 2007 and single-handedly carried the Milwaukee Brewers to the playoffs after being traded there from the Cleveland Indians in July.

He was everything the Bombers needed. This was a pitcher who had thrown 513 innings over the last two seasons. No one could question the heart or willingness to sacrifice himself. In many ways, he is a consummate team player. A bulldog that the Yankees haven’t had since David Cone. He was willing to start on three days rest three times at the end of the season despite looming free agency. This is a character individual you want to have with you in battle and now the Yankees have him for that big game down the stretch or during that big playoff game.

With the big fella in pinstripes, a sense of comfort fills the air.

The other pitcher the Yankees had on their list was AJ Burnett. Watching him while pitching for the Toronto Blue Jays and you just dreaded when he was the mound opponent on any given night.

You knew that night was going to be a struggle. His stuff is among the filthiest in the league and when he is on, can stifle any lineup in baseball. The Yankees found this out first hand last season when he went 3-1 with a 1.64 ERA in five starts.

His familiarity of pitching in the American League East is only going to serve him well as he transitions from Toronto to New York. This is not like bring Kevin Brown, Javier Vazquez or Randy Johnson. National League pitchers who could never fully adjust to the AL lineups with the DH and lesser quality 7-8-9 hitters that permeate the NL.

The only thing that has been in question is Burnett’s health, and whether he can make it through a full season. Only twice in his career has Burnett made 30 starts, and those came in free agency years. So it stands to reason specifically what the Yankees will get. Last year, with the help of ace pitcher Roy Halladay, he took a little off his fastball and mixed in his other pitches. The result was an 18-win season with over 220 innings pitched and nearly a strikeout per inning.

It doesn’t matter if it’s on the home at new Yankee Stadium or on the road with Burnett. When you have the type of stuff he has, it will travel. Lining him with Wang and Sabathia in a postseason series gives a greater chance than they have in previous years.

Call it reassurance.

Bring back Wang and Pettitte for another season and then add it Joba Chamberlain as the fifth starter and you have a chance to win every night with any pitcher starting despite the shortcomings that exist on offense.

No longer does the team have to worry about pounding out six to eight runs per game – that talent no longer exists on the roster. The team has to find a new way to win ballgames.

Luckily, now they have the pitching to do so.

This is the foundation of the team. It is what wins games.

Ultimately, it wins championships.

Let’s just hope it does in The Bronx in 2009.