I do this every year. Before the start of every season, I take a look at the Yankees and try to draw conclusions as to what their statistical output will be.
Sometimes I will be right on the on the money, and other times I will bomb completely. However, over the last four seasons, my prediction for Yankees victories has come within two victories of the eventual total. Last year, I predicted the Yankee would win only 90 games, and they finished with an 89-73 record. This year of course, we are hoping for the team a better record, but as perhaps the teams worst critic, I have to use honesty in my evaluations.
With that, here we go!
Yankees over/under for wins: 94.5
OVER - Last year the team underperformed due to having below mediocre starters pitching games for too long a period. This year, with the acquisition of CC Sabathia and AJ Burnett to go along with Chien-Ming Wang, Andy Pettitte and Joba Chamberlain give the Yankees the best starting rotation in baseball. This allows the team to run off more winning streaks due to not having consistent starting pitchers to throw out there. The bullpen looks strong, and with improved defense at first base and in the outfield to go along with an offense that cannot be any worse than it was last year, look for the Yanks to make the playoffs this season in a tremendously difficult American League East.
Yankees wins over Tampa Bay: 9.5
OVER – The team was competitive against Tampa last year with mediocre pitching. The Rays last year had problems against premium starters. Now that the Yankees have enough of them to throw on any night, their success should improve.
Yankees wins over Boston: 9.5
UNDER – The Rivalry is always close and goes either way each season. For me, the bullpens are what will decide these games. To me, Boston’s bullpen is better than the Yankees are now. However, with reserves in the minors, this has a chance to change by July.
Derek Jeter batting average: .300
UNDER – Jeter is aging (perhaps naturally) and has been declining in production as a player. This is likely to continue as he has turned into a “de facto singles hitter”. He will likely start off slow and pick up performance as the weather warms up.
Robinson Cano RBI’s: 80
OVER – After embarrassing himself last year, Cano appears to have learned from his loafing and has matured. If that is the case, look for him to emerge as one of the premier second basemen in the league along with Dustin Pedroia. If he can improve his patience compared to prior years, this will help him be more selective on pitches and give him more opportunities to drive in runs.
Mark Teixeira’s home runs: 35
UNDER – Though people may think he is a slugger because of his numbers, he is more apt to grind out an at bat and get on base and slap a single than choose to be power crazy. Because the pressure isn’t tremendously on him and he appears to be acclimated to the team, he should fit in well and thus will not try and think he needs to yank home runs to justify the $180 million the team is paying him. Looking for a 32 home run and 135 RBI season.
Alex Rodriguez’s OPS: .999
UNDER – Despite the fact that A-Rod may not care about who likes him or not, he is going to experience a very harsh season from fans at home and on the road. There has been nothing to indicate that he is not soft and impervious to such criticism. After
he returns from the hip injury he will need time to adjust assuming he is completely healthy. It has been my contention that he will not finish the season with the Yankees due to the lingering effects that are likely to hamper him, thus diminishing his power.Jorge Posada games caught: 100
OVER – Posada has an unbelievable work ethic and has done everything to rehab from last season’ shoulder injury. He appears healthy and ready to contribute. Even at the advanced catcher’s age of 37, the fiery leader is going to show why he is the best offensive catcher in the American League before last season. Can he suit up over 100 times in 2009? I think so.
Xavier Nady/Nick Swisher’s combined production: 30.5 HR’s and 120 RBI’s
OVER – This is all dependent on how much time the energetic Swisher gets in the lineup. If his playing time is limited than this is not going to happen. However, if Girardi manages this correctly, Nady will get sizable amount of at bats and Swisher will be able to spell Damon and Gardner along with Nady at all points of the season. Think of him as a super-sub. Even though he had a terrible season last year, keen eye at the plate and should be able to translate into better success with a more high-powered lineup in pinstripes.
Brett Gardner batting average: .275
UNDER – Unless he turns into Brett Butler (former Mets, Giants and Dodgers centerfielder) and completely over-performs, I cannot see him hitting above that number. He will be very good defensively and steal some bases, but the Yankees will still be looking to upgrade the position by the trade deadline.
Total Yankees runs scored: 830
OVER (slightly) – This is no longer the juggernaut that scored over 900 and near 1,000 runs. Better pitching in the division, the ban on amphetamines, and the slowly dissolving usage of performance drugs all bring the uber-offenses down. My prediction is going to be dependent on whether the team will produce with runners in scoring position with better efficiency that in 2008. I’m going to say “yes” because I feel that the team will not feel as much pressure to score plenty of run because they know that with the pitching staff that they have, they will be able to relax and always be in the ballgame and can pull one out late if needed.
PITCHING
CC Sabathia wins: 17.5
OVER – Though his ERA will be higher than it was in the National League (who can top 1.65?), with the expected runs given to him by the offense, he will be able to have a comfort level to where he does not need to throw a shutout or give up one run in a given night. He will start off a little slow, but will pick it up from the middle of May and go on a lengthy streak of great performance landing him with 21 wins.
AJ Burnett wins: 15.5
OVER – If Burnett wins more than 16 games, the Yankees will win more than 100 games this year. No one really knows what to expect from him. He has all the talent in the world and is the perfect hard throwing, miss bats pitcher that is needed to take down the Red Sox. In Spring Training, he has been lights out. Can he translate it into the regular season? Hopefully he can.
Joba Chamberlain innings pitched: 150
OVER – The Yankees will find this out right around the middle of July. Unless he pitches like Dasiuke Matsuzaka did last year and pitch 5 innings at a high pitch count rate, he will surpass his cap and force the organization into making a decision about him.
Total starting staff innings pitched: 930
OVER – The team has legitimately four pitchers who can give 200 innings. Add Joba into that and that brings this total over the 930 number. By my numbers, I have the Yankees five starters calculated to throw just over 68% of the team’s innings. Last year, that number was below 60%. This means that you have most of those innings are being placed in the hands of far less quality pitchers (relievers) than starters. In the case of the Yankees, putting the ball in the hands of those five mean that you will be getting good quality for those innings, thus leading to more wins and entry into the postseason.
Brain Bruney WHIP: 1.25
OVER – Until he can show me that he can consistently not walk people, then I know he is set to break out and live up to the potential in his right arm. Consider me pessimistic for now.
Jose Veras appearances: 70
OVER – He pitched very well for most of the season before tiring late. The hard slider and power curve to compliment his fastball made him a good pitcher last year and should be a trusted reliever of Joe Girardi’s pen.
Phil Coke’s strikeouts: 60
OVER – Way over!!! This guy is a hidden gem that will be uncovered this season. Maybe last September and this spring was not a fluke. Of course, those are the two worst time to judge a player. But I am going to go “all in” and bank that he will be the best reliever outside of Mariano Rivera this season.
Mariano Rivera ERA: 2.20
UNDER – Does this man ever age? I thought coming back from surgery was going to hamper some of the effectiveness that he would have, but instead he looks strong and is ready to go once again. Even injured last year, he pitched to a 1.40 ERA and a near 13 to 1 BB to K ratio. At some point, age should age up with him. But until it does, you cannot doubt Mariano.
Yankees total runs given up: 700
UNDER – If this number is over, than the Yankees will not make the playoffs. The pitching staff is too good to give up that amount. From the rotation to the power arms in the bullpen, this is a strong staff all around. For the team to comfortably make the playoffs, the run differential needs to be at least 150 runs in favor. If the number is 200 and above, then 95 wins will be the minimum the Yanks get to. Anything more than that would put them on pace for 100 wins.
Yankees playoff wins: 2.5
OVER – Unlike previous seasons where those teams couldn’t pitch worth a damn, this team has power arms who miss bats and that is what wins in October. While they will either win the AL East or come up two games short and be a wild card team, I forecast them playing the Cleveland Indians in the Division Series with them advancing to the AL Championship Series against the Boston Red Sox. Yes, “The Rivalry” will be back on in 2009 with a World Series berth at stake. I will not predict anything else past that.
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