It has become a yearly spring ritual.
Here we are once again starting another baseball season and it is time to look at all of the numbers and try to predict (accurately we hope) whether players and the team will over perform or fall short of expectations.
Consider this our way of watching the baseball season under a different sort of prism.
Going back to 2009, there were 20 predictions that I made and these were the results:
1. Yankees over/under for wins: 94 – OVER
Result – Yankees went 103-59
2. Yankees wins over Tampa Bay: 9.5 – OVER
Result – Yankees went 11-7 vs. TB
3. Yankees wins over Boston: 9.5 – UNDER
Result – After starting 0-8, the Yankees rallied to finish 9-9 against the Red Sox.
4. Derek Jeter batting average: .300 – UNDER
Result – Big miss here. Jeter arguably had his finest season, hitting .334.
5. Robinson Cano RBI’s: 80 – OVER
Result – Cano rebounded from a poor season in 2008 to drive in 85 runs.
6. Mark Teixeira homeruns: 35 – UNDER
Result – Teixeira led the AL in homeruns with 39.
7. Alex Rodriguez’s OPS: .999 – UNDER
Result – After missing a month, Rodriguez finished with a .933
8. Jorge Posada games caught: 100 – OVER
Result – In terms of games started, Posada finished with 88. However, pinch hitting appearances and defensive switches up his total to 100.
9. Xavier Nady/Nick Swisher’s combined production: 30.5 HR’S and 120 RBI’s – OVER
Result – Nady was lost for the season one week in, but Swisher was able to make up for most of the production, hitting 29 homers and driving in 82.
10. Brett Gardner batting average: .275 – UNDER
Result – In 284 AB’s, Gardner finished at .270.
11. Total Yankees runs: 830 – OVER
Result – Yankees scored 913 runs
12. CC Sabathia wins: 17.5 – OVER
Result – Sabathia finished 19-8.
13. AJ Burnett wins: 15.5 – OVER
Result: After having 10 wins at the start of August, Burnett finished 13-9.
Joba Chamberlain innings pitched: 150 – OVER
Result: With crafty ingenuity, the Yankees were able to hold him to 157 1/3 innings.
14. Total starting staff innings pitched: 930 – OVER
Result – Total number came in just under 900 innings.
15. Brian Bruney WHIP: 1.25 – OVER
Result –After starting strong, an injury and continued inconsistency led to a 1.51 clip and hidden from the pen when the season drew later.
16. Jose Veras appearances: 70 – OVER
Result – Luckily, I was wrong about this one. After seven weeks of bad, Veras essentially was banned from the team, never to see the mound as a Yankee again.
17. Phil Coke’s strikeouts: 60 – OVER
Result – Coke started out strong, but wilted as the season went along. Though he got a few outs in the postseason, he never became as good as advertised before the year began.
18. Mariano Rivera ERA: 2.20 – UNDER
Result – Rivera never disappoints. He struggled early in the season, and still finished with an eye-popping 1.76 ERA.
19. Yankees total runs given up: 700 – UNDER
Result – Because the offense scored over 900 runs, it allowed the pitching to be more comfortable. Chien-Ming Wang’s implosion skews the number just a bit, but it was a very successful season for the Yankees pitching staff.
20. Yankees playoff wins: 2.5 –OVER
Result –World champions. While I did go out as far to say the Yankees would win it all outright, I had a good feeling it would happen.
Final score: 12 correct, eight wrong, one tie.
With those numbers and results in for 2009, it is time for an entire new set of permutations for the year.
Let’s see what this season brings.
Yankees over/under for wins: 95.5
OVER – This team is better than it was last year in terms of its starting pitching and bullpen. If you remember, when Wang bombed early in the season, the Yankees had to use Joba Chamberlain as their fourth starter and when Phil Hughes left the rotation in June to go to the bullpen, Sergio Mitre and Chad Gaudin shared the fifth starter’s role.
This year, with the re-acquiring of Javier Vazquez to chew up innings and having Hughes as the fifth starter with quality backup just in case, the rotation is stacked.
In the bullpen, David Robertson, Chan Ho Park, Joba Chamberlain and Damaso Marte now replace the likes of Jose Veras, Edwar Ramirez and Phil Coke. Games after the sixth inning are on lockdown and that will steal many wins against opponents with lesser quality relievers.
The offense, despite losing Hideki Matsui and Johnny Damon, does not appear to miss much with Curtis Granderson and Nick Johnson (assuming he’s healthy). This is still a 900-run club.
Yankees wins over Boston: 9.5
OVER – Despite the Red Sox addition of John Lackey and the additions made them sew up their defense, their lack of offense is pronounced. This comes up as a problem versus a Yankees team that can pitch with and hit good pitching.
Highly doubtful Boston will win the first eight like last year, but this looks to be a 10-9 Yankees victory.
Yankees wins over Tampa Bay: 9.5
OVER – The Rays have very good young pitching and even though they didn’t make the playoffs last year, this team is still very good and will give the Yankees a few fits this year.
Derek Jeter hits: 203
OVER – Jeter came to camp last year in the best shape of his career and the results were exquisite. He still has the same drive that he had when he was a rookie, and as he closes on 3,000 hits, there is no reason to believe he will slow down now considering he is in a contract season. He will get over 200 hits and then break past 3,000 in May of 2011.
Robinson Cano walks: 50
UNDER – If Cano ever were consistently patient, he would have a chance to compete for an MVP. He still is an easy out in difficult situations because he goes fishing at the plate.
After talking all last spring training about wanting to be a more patient hitter, Cano started the season drawing numerous walks. Eventually though he reverted to the same overly aggressive hitter he has been his entire career, walking only 30 times.
Without Matsui, Cano moves up to protect Alex Rodriguez in the lineup. If he cannot be patient, teams will pitch around Rodriguez and force the over-anxious Cano to beat them.
Mark Teixeira RBI’s: 115.5
OVER – When you watch Teixeira every day, you get a true appreciation for the type of player he is. He is the consummate professional and great teammate. While he may receive a salary of $22 million a year, he continues to produces and play as if he is trying to earn every penny.
After starting slow last year, he picked it up big time and wound up leading the AL in home runs (39) and RBI (122). Teixeira and Rodriguez formed the most deadly 3-4 combination in baseball. Even though Damon is gone, Teixeira production will not dissipate.
Alex Rodriguez home runs: 37.5
OVER – After a legendary postseason where he removed all remaining demons and won his first world championship, Rodriguez now has a fresh outlook on the remainder of his career. No longer does he have to worry about carrying that burden any longer. He can simply go out and just play baseball.
With that, the rest of the league had better watch out. He has scalded the ball in the spring and is in tremendous shape after not needing additional surgery to his hip. He no longer has to feel the burden of the team and can now allow his natural to shine.
Which he will…perhaps to an MVP.
Curtis Granderson batting average vs. LHP: .250
UNDER – While he certainly cannot do any worse than the paltry .173 Granderson performed at last year, the change in scenery, hitting coach Kevin Long and a better lineup all should aid him in becoming a better hitter.
Nick Swisher strikeouts: 123.5
OVER – Swisher has always been a “feast or famine” hitter at the plate. When he connects, good things happen. When he doesn’t, he’s creating artificial breeze.
In the offseason, Swisher’s goal was to cut down on his strikeouts. Time will only tell if that will happen. The stats say he should inevitably revert to the same hitter he has always been. A power hitter, who walks, hits homeruns, yet strikes out a lot.
Jorge Posada combined total of HR and RBI: 92
OVER – It is amazing that even at his advanced age of 38, Posada is still among the top producers at his position. He has remained in tremendous shape and even with up and coming prospects waiting behind him, does not want to give his job up yet to become a full time designated hitter. As he continues to produce, it is a safe assumption he will continue to catch for the Yankees.
PITCHING
CC Sabathia wins: 18.5
UNDER – The big left-handers has logged a lot of innings over the last three years, and while he can handle the workload and has not suffered a serious injury, you just wonder if this will all catch up to him.
To preserve him for October, I can see Girardi limiting his inning in both the first and last 4 weeks of the season. The Yankees project to be so good and with a strong bullpen, can afford to do this.
This will lead though to slightly less wins.
AJ Burnett ERA: 4.10
OVER – As great as Burnett’s stuff is, there is a reason he has never been able to harness if over a course of a full season.
Last year, he would have several great starts mixed in with a few serious stinkers. For nearly two months, he was the best pitcher in baseball and could have made a serious bid as a Top 5 CY Young candidate before again struggling down the final stretch of the season.
His ERA ended at 4.04. In 2008 before coming to the Yankees, his ERA was 4.08. The question becomes whether for one season he can eliminate the seriously bad outings or just minimize the damage when things get rough.
It’s doubtful he can.
Javier Vazquez wins: 14.5
OVER – This excuse that he couldn’t pitch in New York is ridiculous when you consider that Joe Torre selected him for the All Start in the middle of his 2004 season.
The alleged “bright lights” did not dim his performance early during what would have been an “adjustment period”. What we found out now was that Vazquez nursed a serious shoulder injury that under normal circumstances would have kept him away from the mound or landed him on the disabled list. However, the pitching on the Yankees 2004 team the last two months was in shambles, forcing him to suck it and take the ball every fifth day, even if it to his (and the teams) detriment.
After six years away, Vazquez returns and finds himself in a different environment. All of the old mercenaries have left and he enters a team coming off a world championship. The expectations for him are not what they were before. His job is to eat innings and he has been among the best at doing so over the last five years.
With the powerful offense and pen, this should give Vazquez an opportunity to win at least 15 games.
Phil Hughes wins: 9.5
OVER – The first time he had his chance back in 2008, Hughes flopped big time. Within one month, he was out of the rotation partially due to poor performance and the other part due to injury.
Last year, Hughes pitched a great game on Memorial Day at Texas and when Wang returned, he went to the bullpen where he flourished.
This time, with increased confidence and a refined changeup and cutter, he is far more prepared to be a successful as a starter the second time around. He will be on an innings limit and won’t make his first start until April 15, but the chances are high he will be able to provide third starter quality pitching out of the fifth slot.
Translation: wins.
David Robertson strikeouts: 62
OVER – Statistically, Robertson finished as one of the best relievers on the staff. His impressive 13.12 strikeouts per nine innings were among the league leaders, and his ability to get hitters out in the postseason only will increase his role this season after spending last pitching in the sixth and seventh innings of games.
Joba Chamberlain ERA: 2.52
OVER – If I knew for a fact he would regain throwing above 95 MPH, I would certainly trust that he would perform as well as he did in the bullpen before converting into a starter. Phil Hughes did not throw in the mid to upper ‘90’s until he went to the bullpen last season.
Perhaps Chamberlain will find that extra gear and defy my odds, but I need to be convinced first.
Mariano Rivera WHIP: 0.99
UNDER – Until he proves otherwise, there is no reason (and no indication) that he will suffer from a decline in performance.
How does he do it? It is incredible.
Yankees total runs scored: 910
UNDER – Just slightly under for the reason that unlike Johnny Damon, you just don’t know if Nick Johnson will be able to stay healthy for a full season. His bat in the two-hole is vital because of not only his ability to take pitches in front of Teixeira and Rodriguez, but because of the offensive ability he has as a hitter.
There will be a slight drop in offense going from Melky Cabrera to Brett Gardner, but nothing significant to consider left field a glaring hole. Granderson has potential to put up .900 OPS numbers, which would be higher than Damon provided last year.
If you add in improved numbers for Rodriguez and Cano, and even if Jeter and Posada are slightly off, the Yankees should still be baseball’s most potent offensive club.
Yankees playoff wins: 6.5
OVER – Obviously, we cannot predict the randomness of postseason baseball. However, not making it out of the first round would be shocking this time around considering how strong the team looks. This is not like prior teams that looked tough and played soft. The group that is in place now is a hardened group that thrived on the spotlight last year and did not wilt.
I don’t expect them to wilt this year either.
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