Clubs looking to push their team to playoffs at deadline
HOT STOVE - There are two times during the baseball year I look forward to ever 12 months.
One is the baseball winter meetings, when teams think that with a few nice deals, they can position themselves in a good spot for the upcoming season.
The other is right now as we countdown to the July 31 trade deadline. Here, teams are looking for (in their minds) those final few pieces that they need to acutely equip their team to either make a playoff run. In other cases, to help bolster their roster, (which is good already) with a player or who that might help win a playoff game and be a worthy contributor to a potential World Series team.
It is the baseball version of Texas Hold’em as teams decide if they need to “buy”, “fold”, “hold”, or go “all in” as a means of getting into that October tournament.
We have played just over half of the season and the categories of each team can be placed in separate divisions not to be confused with the current divisions they are in now.
SEE YOU IN OCTOBER!
Los Angeles Dodgers, Boston Red Sox, New York Yankees, Philadelphia Phillies
TRIPLES ALLEY
St. Louis Cardinals, Tampa Bay Rays, Los Angeles Angels
IT MIGHT BE, IT COULD BE
Chicago Cubs, Detroit Tigers, San Francisco Giants, Texas Rangers, Minnesota Twins
DOING ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY EXISTENCE
Chicago White Sox, Milwaukee Brewers, Seattle Mariners, Colorado Rockies, Atlanta Braves
IN THE DOGHOUSE
Cincinnati Reds, Florida Marlins, Houston Astros, New York Mets, Toronto Blue Jays, Oakland Athletics, Arizona Diamondbacks, Baltimore Orioles
BACK TO THE MINORS
Pittsburgh Pirates, Washington Nationals, San Diego Padres, Kansas City Royals, Cleveland Indians
That is how I have classified each squad. When you go further than that, you then have to separate the teams by category.
The teams at this point in the year fall into one of three categories:
1. We know were good, we just need some tweaking.
Teams in this category: Dodgers, Red Sox, Phillies, Yankees
2. We're middle of the road. If we make some moves, we can win because everyone else stinks.
Teams in this category: The entire AL and NL Central, Giants, Rockies, Rangers and Angels
3. We are not that good, so why bother? However, we have a few players can we can trade to that other teams might want.
Teams in this category: Indians, Braves, Mariners
4. We have the FOR SALE sign outside our ballpark because we just stink and the season has gone to hell.
Teams in this category: Mets
5. We know we stink and have some good players, but we are not trading unless we get the equivalent of a Herschel Walker trade. Even then, you must be willing to eat some extra salary – and that STILL might not be enough.
Teams in this category: Nationals, Padres, Athletics, Blue Jays
So there you have the field. Now go try dealing with them. It's not as easy as it would seem. The problem is that the way baseball has been structured over the last 7 years with all the new revenue is that teams are able to keep their own players by signing them to deals that keep them off the free agent and trade markets.
With less trade options and free agents, you end up with the situations liker right now where second tier players command more than they are worth because the team holding such player can demand whatever they want because there is no other option.
The other extreme is what you see in Toronto where the Blue Jays are openly shopping Roy Halladay, baseball's best pitcher. But they are finding the market for him is open to a few expensive clubs that not only have to have the money to take on for this and the next year, along with giving them your three best minor league prospects. Having good players allows them to have a great impact on your club at minimal cost, thus preventing you from having to search for it elsewhere, spending good money to find that player.
Yet teams, as a way to justify to their fans that they are “going for it”, attempt to make these moves (or non-moves) to give their fans the impression that they are competing for a playoff spot. Last year, it appeared the Yankees were big winners at the deadline when they traded four prospects to the Pirates for Xavier Nady and Damaso Marte, and then traded for Tigers catcher Ivan Rodriguez.
Everything looked good for the team to make a playoff run. Unfortunately, it did not work out. The pitching issues that were in place all season plagued the team along with the inconsistent nature of its offense. Add to it, Nady never performed like the .330 hitter he was in Pittsburgh. Marte could not get anyone out for the last nine weeks, and Rodriguez could not buy a hit or an RBI no matter how much money he was willing to pay.
The Yankees did not make the playoffs and were in essence, out of it in September rendering all the trades moot. None of the players they gave up have had a meaningful impact on the Pirates, so in the end, it did hurt as much.
Compare that to the Milwaukee Brewers, who traded for ace CC Sabathia by giving up two of their best hitting prospects. Sabathia helped the team make the postseason, only to flame out due to over usage and two months later, signed with the Yankees.
Was that a bad deal? Well, it did help Milwaukee reach the playoffs for the first time in 25 years and they have reaped the benefits by having spectacular attendance this season. Business wise, it was a sound decision.
And that is what teams have to face. Even with the economy playing a daily role in day-to-day transactions, (the Yankees recently had the Pirates pay half of Eric Hinske’s $800,000 contract) and their ability to consider even acquiring costly talent, teams have to make sure they make the right decision.
The problem is what is the right decision?
In a league where 19 of its 30 teams are still within several games of a playoff spot, not many teams are throwing in the towel and announcing a fire sale as you would see in years past. Those days are just about over.
Because of that volume of teams thinking they are in it, competing teams in the same position are not going to make any deals with each other. The very good teams have no reason to trade unless it is to their benefit. And the bad teams do not have many worthy players worth asking for.
For instance, outside of Adam Dunn and Nick Johnson (Ryan Zimmerman is not available, so don’t ask), there is not one player on that roster that would start right this moment on either the Yankees, Red Sox or Dodgers. Add to it, they do not have a pitcher good enough to make the rotation or the bullpen.
Zach Duke of the Pirates may be the only pitcher on their staff that can pitch for a good team. After seeing the volume of their other starters/relievers that have been traded, only to have them flame out due to facing higher quality competition
And if you are a bad team, who the hell do you have that anyone else would want any way?
This is why the Mets, as bad as things are for them right now, are hit the worst. Because of the construction of their team, they don’t have any spare parts that can be traded away. Anyone is reasonably good (outside of David Wright) is on the disabled list. Surely, they could have traded JJ Putz or maybe even John Maine had they been healthy and received a good value.
Other teams like the Blue Jays, have several bad contracts on their ledger and no team is silly enough to take them on. After giving reliever BJ Ryan $45 million, they were forced to release him last week.
Scott Rolen is signed to an $11 million contract for next year, which actually isn’t bad considering that he has shown to once again be a durable player who can produce. Unfortunately, they will not find any (who have sense) takers for centerfielder Vernon Wells, who is signed for another five years and $94 million through 2014. Perhaps if a team was willing to take on that contract, you can get a bit of a discount when it comes to getting Halladay.
The Phillies appear to be the leaders for the right hander’s services, but are unwilling to surrender their top level minor league talent. Surely, acquiring him would put the defending world champions in a position to become the first repeat champion since the 1998-2000 Yankees. But at what cost?
So as we count the days until July 31, rumors will swirl from all over on different deals and 99% percent of them will be false. Message boards and talk radio will be littered with thought on what their team should do and how they can get Player X for whatever combination of players that it takes. Most times, it’s a deal that always seems to work in their teams favor.
That is the fun of it.
While were at this, I’ll chime in with a few random trade thoughts….
After passing on Raul Ibanez, Bobby Abreu and Adam Dunn in order to sign Milton Bradley, who has come down with a serious case of Cub-itis, the Chicago National League baseball team now needs another hitter who is left handed that can hit.
Bargains are not around right now unless you are willing to spend, and with the new ownership situation not settled, there is a freeze on the money the Cubs have available to use.
They have locked themselves into bad contracts with all three of their outfielders along with having Aramis Ramirez and Derrek Lee under contract. The only position where they can get this player would be at second base.
Problem is that middle of the order second baseman are a premium because they rarely exist. Chase Utley, Robinson Cano and Brian Roberts are not walking through that door.
It would seem logical that the San Francisco Giants get a hitter. They have the best pitching in the league and are in a close race with division rival Colorado for the wildcard.
If they can swing a deal for the Blue Jays outfielder Alex Rios or Scott Rolen, it would be a tremendous boost.
While the Phillies have been the team most likely to trade for Halladay, I am still going to bet my money on St. Louis getting him.
They have an open year to win the NL Central with the Cubs stumbling along; there is an opening to sneak into the playoffs despite having a relatively young team surrounding Albert Pujols.
A rotation of Halladay, to go along with Chris Carpenter and Adam Wainright in a playoff series would give them just as good a chance as the Dodgers or Phillies to get to the World Series.
I did find it a bit funny that some scribes had the Texas Rangers as a potential landing spot too. Of course, this was the same team that could not make their payroll three weeks ago and had to borrow money from MLB. All of it was reminiscent of scene in Major League II when Owner Roger Dorn couldn’t meet payroll seven weeks into the season and had to sell the team back to former owner Rachel Phelps.
Word of the wise to any big market team needing relief pitching - Do NOT trade for relief pitchers who are on bad teams. The success rate of these guys going to Boston, New York, Chicago or Philadelphia and performing well are historically low.
You go from pitching with no pressure to a pennant race and all of a sudden, excessive nervous and lack of fortitude leads to eventual and inevitable failure.
HOT STOVE - There are two times during the baseball year I look forward to ever 12 months.
One is the baseball winter meetings, when teams think that with a few nice deals, they can position themselves in a good spot for the upcoming season.
The other is right now as we countdown to the July 31 trade deadline. Here, teams are looking for (in their minds) those final few pieces that they need to acutely equip their team to either make a playoff run. In other cases, to help bolster their roster, (which is good already) with a player or who that might help win a playoff game and be a worthy contributor to a potential World Series team.
It is the baseball version of Texas Hold’em as teams decide if they need to “buy”, “fold”, “hold”, or go “all in” as a means of getting into that October tournament.
We have played just over half of the season and the categories of each team can be placed in separate divisions not to be confused with the current divisions they are in now.
SEE YOU IN OCTOBER!
Los Angeles Dodgers, Boston Red Sox, New York Yankees, Philadelphia Phillies
TRIPLES ALLEY
St. Louis Cardinals, Tampa Bay Rays, Los Angeles Angels
IT MIGHT BE, IT COULD BE
Chicago Cubs, Detroit Tigers, San Francisco Giants, Texas Rangers, Minnesota Twins
DOING ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY EXISTENCE
Chicago White Sox, Milwaukee Brewers, Seattle Mariners, Colorado Rockies, Atlanta Braves
IN THE DOGHOUSE
Cincinnati Reds, Florida Marlins, Houston Astros, New York Mets, Toronto Blue Jays, Oakland Athletics, Arizona Diamondbacks, Baltimore Orioles
BACK TO THE MINORS
Pittsburgh Pirates, Washington Nationals, San Diego Padres, Kansas City Royals, Cleveland Indians
That is how I have classified each squad. When you go further than that, you then have to separate the teams by category.
The teams at this point in the year fall into one of three categories:
1. We know were good, we just need some tweaking.
Teams in this category: Dodgers, Red Sox, Phillies, Yankees
2. We're middle of the road. If we make some moves, we can win because everyone else stinks.
Teams in this category: The entire AL and NL Central, Giants, Rockies, Rangers and Angels
3. We are not that good, so why bother? However, we have a few players can we can trade to that other teams might want.
Teams in this category: Indians, Braves, Mariners
4. We have the FOR SALE sign outside our ballpark because we just stink and the season has gone to hell.
Teams in this category: Mets
5. We know we stink and have some good players, but we are not trading unless we get the equivalent of a Herschel Walker trade. Even then, you must be willing to eat some extra salary – and that STILL might not be enough.
Teams in this category: Nationals, Padres, Athletics, Blue Jays
So there you have the field. Now go try dealing with them. It's not as easy as it would seem. The problem is that the way baseball has been structured over the last 7 years with all the new revenue is that teams are able to keep their own players by signing them to deals that keep them off the free agent and trade markets.
With less trade options and free agents, you end up with the situations liker right now where second tier players command more than they are worth because the team holding such player can demand whatever they want because there is no other option.
The other extreme is what you see in Toronto where the Blue Jays are openly shopping Roy Halladay, baseball's best pitcher. But they are finding the market for him is open to a few expensive clubs that not only have to have the money to take on for this and the next year, along with giving them your three best minor league prospects. Having good players allows them to have a great impact on your club at minimal cost, thus preventing you from having to search for it elsewhere, spending good money to find that player.
Yet teams, as a way to justify to their fans that they are “going for it”, attempt to make these moves (or non-moves) to give their fans the impression that they are competing for a playoff spot. Last year, it appeared the Yankees were big winners at the deadline when they traded four prospects to the Pirates for Xavier Nady and Damaso Marte, and then traded for Tigers catcher Ivan Rodriguez.
Everything looked good for the team to make a playoff run. Unfortunately, it did not work out. The pitching issues that were in place all season plagued the team along with the inconsistent nature of its offense. Add to it, Nady never performed like the .330 hitter he was in Pittsburgh. Marte could not get anyone out for the last nine weeks, and Rodriguez could not buy a hit or an RBI no matter how much money he was willing to pay.
The Yankees did not make the playoffs and were in essence, out of it in September rendering all the trades moot. None of the players they gave up have had a meaningful impact on the Pirates, so in the end, it did hurt as much.
Compare that to the Milwaukee Brewers, who traded for ace CC Sabathia by giving up two of their best hitting prospects. Sabathia helped the team make the postseason, only to flame out due to over usage and two months later, signed with the Yankees.
Was that a bad deal? Well, it did help Milwaukee reach the playoffs for the first time in 25 years and they have reaped the benefits by having spectacular attendance this season. Business wise, it was a sound decision.
And that is what teams have to face. Even with the economy playing a daily role in day-to-day transactions, (the Yankees recently had the Pirates pay half of Eric Hinske’s $800,000 contract) and their ability to consider even acquiring costly talent, teams have to make sure they make the right decision.
The problem is what is the right decision?
In a league where 19 of its 30 teams are still within several games of a playoff spot, not many teams are throwing in the towel and announcing a fire sale as you would see in years past. Those days are just about over.
Because of that volume of teams thinking they are in it, competing teams in the same position are not going to make any deals with each other. The very good teams have no reason to trade unless it is to their benefit. And the bad teams do not have many worthy players worth asking for.
For instance, outside of Adam Dunn and Nick Johnson (Ryan Zimmerman is not available, so don’t ask), there is not one player on that roster that would start right this moment on either the Yankees, Red Sox or Dodgers. Add to it, they do not have a pitcher good enough to make the rotation or the bullpen.
Zach Duke of the Pirates may be the only pitcher on their staff that can pitch for a good team. After seeing the volume of their other starters/relievers that have been traded, only to have them flame out due to facing higher quality competition
And if you are a bad team, who the hell do you have that anyone else would want any way?
This is why the Mets, as bad as things are for them right now, are hit the worst. Because of the construction of their team, they don’t have any spare parts that can be traded away. Anyone is reasonably good (outside of David Wright) is on the disabled list. Surely, they could have traded JJ Putz or maybe even John Maine had they been healthy and received a good value.
Other teams like the Blue Jays, have several bad contracts on their ledger and no team is silly enough to take them on. After giving reliever BJ Ryan $45 million, they were forced to release him last week.
Scott Rolen is signed to an $11 million contract for next year, which actually isn’t bad considering that he has shown to once again be a durable player who can produce. Unfortunately, they will not find any (who have sense) takers for centerfielder Vernon Wells, who is signed for another five years and $94 million through 2014. Perhaps if a team was willing to take on that contract, you can get a bit of a discount when it comes to getting Halladay.
The Phillies appear to be the leaders for the right hander’s services, but are unwilling to surrender their top level minor league talent. Surely, acquiring him would put the defending world champions in a position to become the first repeat champion since the 1998-2000 Yankees. But at what cost?
So as we count the days until July 31, rumors will swirl from all over on different deals and 99% percent of them will be false. Message boards and talk radio will be littered with thought on what their team should do and how they can get Player X for whatever combination of players that it takes. Most times, it’s a deal that always seems to work in their teams favor.
That is the fun of it.
While were at this, I’ll chime in with a few random trade thoughts….
After passing on Raul Ibanez, Bobby Abreu and Adam Dunn in order to sign Milton Bradley, who has come down with a serious case of Cub-itis, the Chicago National League baseball team now needs another hitter who is left handed that can hit.
Bargains are not around right now unless you are willing to spend, and with the new ownership situation not settled, there is a freeze on the money the Cubs have available to use.
They have locked themselves into bad contracts with all three of their outfielders along with having Aramis Ramirez and Derrek Lee under contract. The only position where they can get this player would be at second base.
Problem is that middle of the order second baseman are a premium because they rarely exist. Chase Utley, Robinson Cano and Brian Roberts are not walking through that door.
It would seem logical that the San Francisco Giants get a hitter. They have the best pitching in the league and are in a close race with division rival Colorado for the wildcard.
If they can swing a deal for the Blue Jays outfielder Alex Rios or Scott Rolen, it would be a tremendous boost.
While the Phillies have been the team most likely to trade for Halladay, I am still going to bet my money on St. Louis getting him.
They have an open year to win the NL Central with the Cubs stumbling along; there is an opening to sneak into the playoffs despite having a relatively young team surrounding Albert Pujols.
A rotation of Halladay, to go along with Chris Carpenter and Adam Wainright in a playoff series would give them just as good a chance as the Dodgers or Phillies to get to the World Series.
I did find it a bit funny that some scribes had the Texas Rangers as a potential landing spot too. Of course, this was the same team that could not make their payroll three weeks ago and had to borrow money from MLB. All of it was reminiscent of scene in Major League II when Owner Roger Dorn couldn’t meet payroll seven weeks into the season and had to sell the team back to former owner Rachel Phelps.
Word of the wise to any big market team needing relief pitching - Do NOT trade for relief pitchers who are on bad teams. The success rate of these guys going to Boston, New York, Chicago or Philadelphia and performing well are historically low.
You go from pitching with no pressure to a pennant race and all of a sudden, excessive nervous and lack of fortitude leads to eventual and inevitable failure.
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