Saturday, June 13, 2009

Yankee Talk: Subway Series Edition – Andy not dandy

Pettitte’s age, stuff starting to catch up with him


BRONX, NY – Every pitcher reaches father time in baseball. For some, the clock strikes midnight early and for others, they are able to delay it much longer.

Of course, there are some who chemically find ways to defeat the aging process.

If we assume the normal course of age is taking with Andy Pettitte (to be fair, a former HGH user), then it should not come as a surprise that his performance is currently in decline and that his clock too may be running out.

At 37, it is wrong for us to assume that he would possess that same talent and virtues as he would when he was 27, one of the backbones of the late 90’s Yankee dynasty.

Watching him labor through five innings in the Yankees 6-2 loss to the Mets began to bring this more into focus. He is an aging pitcher with declining stuff, unable to full control as game as he used to.

Pettitte’s cut fastball is not baring in on the hands of right handed hitters, and with the inability to get consistent bite on his curveball and changeup, he has been eminently more hittable and thus, has been a lesser pitcher.

Allowing 11 hits and five runs through those five frames, you consistently saw deep counts and not being able to put hitters away. What used to be strikeouts are becoming foul balls. What once were weak groundballs are now being hit more sharply. Add in the “pinball machine” nature of the new Yankee Stadium, and what used to be routine fly balls for outs are find their way into the seats for homeruns.

The days of him being able to stop losing streaks and any other fancy statistic that shows his career of solid, consistent pitching are slowly coming to an end. Each start that you see is more evidence of this. The days when you give Andy the ball with confidence in a big game like you would in the past are fading away, being replaced by hope that he can use intelligence, guile and veteran savvy to keep the team in the game long enough.

In a lot of ways, it seems Pettitte left his best stuff and entire heart out there on the mound in Game 2 of the 2007 AL Division against the Indians when he tried to will his best to avoid putting the Yankees in 0-2 hole in series they would go on to lose.

I was in Jacobs Field that afternoon turned evening and it was a game where he was turning time back. However, it was clear that this was not the same pitcher I was used to seeing anymore. How the Indians did not blow him out of the building I will never know. But each time Cleveland appeared ready to strike, he would hold them off and did so as long as he could.

While he will pull a good game out every couple of starts, he has become the prototypical number five starter.

After starting out the season very strong where his ERA was 2.98 in April in four starts, Pettitte began to reach his rough patch in May 1 start against the Angels at Yankee Stadium. Since that start, his outings have been very much more pedestrian. In Pettitte’s last nine starts, he’s allowed at least four runs or more six times, pitching to a mediocre 5.35 ERA.

Is he hurt? Pettitte will not say so. In a start against the Indians in Cleveland, he injured his back in a Yankees win, removed from the game after only five innings.

Making his next start, a 4-2 Yankees loss to Texas, and if Pettitte was not feeling effects of the injury, he did a very good job of denying it. He only threw five innings, but walked a season high six in throwing 104 pitches and allowing 13 men on base.

During this time, his WHIP has been 1.82. The number is unsustainable for any length of time without eventually getting hammered. Pettitte is not pitching into bad luck. He is simply pitching badly.

In the past, he had good enough stuff to put runners on base and be able to get out of trouble by inducing a double play or getting a strikeout on his own merit. Now, he has to rely on fooling the hitter consistently to pitch effective and deep into games.

If that is not happening on a given night, the bullpen better be ready to log innings. It is something the Yankees cannot afford with all the inconsistent performances innings wise from Joba Chamberlain and Chien-Ming Wang. Pettitte was looked at to be on the stabilizing forces while taking a lesser role in the rotation.

The only thing keeping him in the rotation is his stature with the team. Yet, how far of a rope does that leave him? Last year, after pitching a great first half where he was a victim of poor run support, Pettitte flamed out in the second half and pitched the worst stretch of baseball in his career as the team missed the playoffs for the first time since 1993.

What is also an underlying current that is that if the Yankees continue on to have a good season and make the playoffs, would you give Pettitte the ball in a series if he continues to pitch like this?

That is a hard question to answer. For now, the answer is still undoubtedly “yes” because neither Chamberlain nor Phil Hughes has yet to perform well enough to make this a debate. However, if they do, would Girardi tell one his “old guard” that he would not be getting the ball in Game 4 of either the Division Series or League Championship Series in favor of a pitcher who would give them a better chance to dominate a lineup and generate more “missed bats”?

A long way is to go before that situation is settled. This much is clear though, in Pettitte’s lesser role, he is providing lesser stuff.

At his age, that stuff is not going to be getting any better.

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