Sunday, August 10, 2008

Yankee Talk: The Great Youth Experiment Gone Bad

To hear the Yankees organization tell it before the start of the 2008 season, it was supposed to be a year of “transition”.

It was to be a year where the older, veteran pitchers would be phased out and a new trio of younger pitchers with tremendous upside.

Phil Hughes, Joba Chamberlain and Ian Kennedy were supposed to be the nucleus of a new future. They were to take their lumps this season and show the team the future would be secure in the hands of these three.

Unfortunately, the 2008 season has brought about more questions than answers.

While Chamberlain has emerged as a potential star, Injuries, underperformance and questions of mental toughness surround Hughes and Kennedy and have the Yankees wondering what the future holds for each of them.

GM Brian Cashman rolled the dice this past offseason when the Minnesota Twins asked for both Hughes and Kennedy in a trade for lefty ace Johan Santana and turned them down. While Santana has continued his success with the New York Mets, neither pitcher has won a game this season.

Here is an illustration of the difference between Santana and Hughes and Kennedy combined:

Santana: 9-7, 2.85 ERA, 161 IP
Hughes and Kennedy: 0-8, 8.51 ERA, 61 1/3 IP

The logic behind not making the trade was sound. Why one would trade two-fifths of a potential starting rotation for one pitcher and then on top, pay him $137 million (his eventual contract extension with the Mets) made terrible financial and baseball sense. It is compounded by the fact that you would then have to spend money on another pitcher to replace the additional one you just traded.

So the Yankees decided to take their chances. Last September, Kennedy was impressive. Hughes, after missing nearly three months with injury, pitched very well down the stretch in 2007 and in Game 3 of the Division Series against Cleveland, showed all the potential the team thought he had despite only being 21 years old.

When the 2008 season began, they both were different pitchers. For whatever reason, the confidence that each of them had the previous season had evaporated. Throwing strikes proved difficult and when their pitches did find the plate, they were hammered.

By the start of May, neither pitcher had a victory. Added insult was that Hughes was making another trip to the disabled list. It was explained that strained his right oblique muscle while sneezing too hard in a rain-shortened start in Chicago against the White Sox, but he never disclosed it.

Prior to that, he had problems finding the strike zone consistently. Though he showed glimpses of good, deep counts and high pitch counts worked against him. In his 22 innings, he allowed 47 baserunners an amassed an ERA of 9.00. The Yankees had set him on an innings cap of 150 for the season. Hughes certainly was not going to reach that cap now and this has a ripple effect into next season if happens to be a part of the rotation.

Kennedy’s struggles appeared to be mental. When asked of his performance, he complained about the pressure and scrutiny that existed pitching in New York and for the Yankees. By the end of May, he too would find himself on the disabled list with a shoulder strain. It was coincidental that his DL stint came one day after again being pounded in a three-inning start against the Orioles.

As I watched him closely, I could not help but to suggest that perhaps he was a “AAAA” type pitcher. Someone could dominate hitters at the minor league level, yet have an inability to get major league hitters out consistently. This was made clear after the Yankees sent him down to AAA after a terrible outing against Detroit on May 1. Somehow Kennedy found the strike zone in his one start there giving up one hit in seven innings, and was immediately called back up.

For two months, neither pitcher was seen or heard from. This past Friday against the Angels, because of the injury to Chamberlain’s shoulder on a Monday night in Texas, Kennedy was called up from AAA (by necessity) and was again given another chance. Two innings, five runs and nine hits later, he was out of the game, showing no progression from his time in the minors. It again left more questions about his ability to pitch at this level and whether he is mentally capable of being successful.

Though his innings cap was 180 before the season, his performance this year, his immaturity issues and with the Yankees potentially eyeing free agent pitchers CC Sabathia and/or Ben Sheets, and his future with the team is very much in peril.

Chamberlain is the only one to have broken out and emerged as a star. Transitioning beautifully from the bullpen in May to the rotation, he has absolutely sensational. In 12 starts, he was 3-1 with an ERA of 2.71. His intimidation on the mound was so pronounced that on two occasions, he forced Manny Ramirez to ask out the lineup in the two meetings between the Yankees and the Red Sox.

Everything was going great for him before he heard a mysterious "pop" in his right shoulder last Monday against Texas. Originally diagnosed as a stiff shoulder, the team went to the extreme sending him to popular sports surgeon Dr. James Andrews for a second opinion. Though Andrews said he would not need surgery, the fact the Yankees sent Chamberlain there should signal danger. He is on the disabled list right now and set to resume throwing in a few days. While he will pitch again this season, warning signs are up that at any point, injury and another trip to the DL is not that far away.
Adding it all up, all three pitchers have spent time on the disabled list. Two of them have pitched horribly. One of them appears to have mental problems. One of them has all the makings of a great pitcher if he can stay healthy. For this season, the great experiment has blown up like a volcano made by a third grader at a science fair.

“Generation Trey” as they were dubbed in Spring Training is currently down to “Generation Joba”, with the rest trying to make up serious ground. If this were a horse race, Chamberlain would be like Secretariat in the Kentucky Derby.

While youth may be on their side, this season has been rough for the young kids and has had a ripple effect on the team and organization as a whole. Time will tell if the faith that was put into them genuine, or lip service as a means to curb spending on high priced free agent pitchers.

To this point, it is a transition gone wrong.


Random Yankee Thoughts

Seeing Brian Bruney pitch in Texas the last week, I noticed that he was wearing long sleeves. Mind you, the temperature was 97 degrees! Was he trying to lose weight?

I do not understand it.

On Tuesday night in the eighth inning, I was referring to Richie Sexson as a “Tall Mountain of Strikeout”. One pitch later, he deposited a pitch into the left center field stands for a grand slam.

Coincidence?

A RIP to the Jason Giambi ‘stache. Once a phenomenon that spurred on a near two month hitting streak, he was 12 for his last 60 and decided to shave it.

It will be missed.

Since then, he has gone on to hit three home runs in a week.

Who knew?

I wonder if he changed his "lucky thong" too.

Despite Giambi’s good season, he was hitting an abysmal .204 with runners in scoring position. Perhaps that means that his statistics this season are somewhat inflated.

When Xavier Nady came in the trade from the Pirates, I suggested that his .330 average was a mirage. That he would come to the Yankees and revert to a .260 hitter.

Since his arrival (through Sunday), he has done this:

15 games: .365 AVG, 1.162 OPS, 5 HR, 13 RBI

Maybe I was wrong about him. Slowly he is becoming one of my new favorite players.

Of course, hitting near .365 will do that for you.

I am trying to think of what could be on the Wilson Betemit hitter’s scouting report.

Can hit fastball very well - Cannot hit breaking pitches to save his life.

End of scouting report.

Watch the games and that is exactly how it plays out.

I am hoping that Damaso Marte is not this season’s version of Eric Gagne circa 2007.

Do not allow me to think that.

Anytime I see Robinson Cano take a base on balls, I am just stunned.

Watching Melky Cabrera at the plate is like being at a funeral. Just a sad two-minute procession before the inevitable pop up or ground out.

Ivan "Pudge" Rodriguez in a Yankee uniform looks weird.

Carl “American Idle” Pavano is apparently rehabbing in the minors. No, seriously he is.

I still give him two weeks before one of his “injuries” appears.

Angels Stadium is where Yankee dreams go to die.

Are this season’s offensive struggles simply an aberration? Does anyone really believe that simply signing Mark Teixeira is going cure the ills of not being able to get “the big hit” with men in scoring position?

In one word: No.

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