In the interest of fairness, I must disclose that I am a supporter of Sen. John McCain. With that being said, we can now proceed.
As I am watching the Democratic Primaries play out, I am simply amazed (or maybe I should not be) by the way their infighting has carried on and is likely to play on through the convention in Denver. It has began to make me wonder if McCain could pull what to me would be the greatest upset in the history of presidential elections.
Let’s be honest, because the last four years of President Bush have ranged from below average to downright bad, and he has put the Republican nominee (no matter who it was going to be) in a near impossible situation to win. McCain, who as a moderate, does not appeal to a sizable percentage of the "base", is forced to adjust his own personal views to “fit in”. It is to suggest that he was not “Republican enough” for his party. This has led to him not being able to maximize fundraising, as President Bush was able to do in both 2000 and 2004. And it puts him at an extreme disadvantage in comparison both Senators Clinton and Obama, who are raising at least double the money he is. In Obama's case, I've been wondering if he has a secret room to print money.
Then you add the other factors that are working against him:
Age: He is a 72-year-old man. For the most grandpa running for office. In some voting circles, that alone makes him the butt of many jokes and in others, disqualifies him from being president.
War: McCain voted for the war in Iraq. He has been 100% behind it since Day 1. This in many ways is very noble considering that many politicians have been quick to flip flop when it suits their position best (see: Kerry, John and Clinton, Hillary). At least Obama can make the argument that he voted “No” to the war from the beginning much like McCain voted “Yes.”
Economy: Polls over the last decade have shown that Democrats are better at handling the economy than Republicans are. Factor in the rising fuel prices, unemployment, mortgage crisis, and higher cost of living across the board, and this has left many voters in November looking for a change. President Bush now hands off these problems to the November winner. McCain has stood behind most of the President’s policies that has brought about the phrase “Bush’s Third Term”. He has just over five months to make a clear distinction on how he will solve those problems and not come across as Bush’s hanger-on. But he is helped by the fact that both Clinton and Obama have clearly (under)stated that they plan to raise taxes in order to get out of this hole.
Essentially, McCain is running a 100-yard race against either candidate and is starting 30 yards behind. Everything is working against him. In reality, this election should not even be competitive. Yet as of right now, if the election were held today, McCain finds himself nearly even with Clinton and leading Obama in national polls.
How is this possible?
It is to McCain’s credit that we live in a “45-45” world, meaning that both Republicans and Democrats will get that percentage of the vote no matter what assuming each party has a strong turnout. It is that remaining 10 percent that is up for taking. The way the electoral map is breaking out, if Obama (most likely) is the opponent, he will have a chance to win this unlikely election.
Obama has had problems in states such as Ohio, Pennsylvania, that total 41 electoral votes. If McCain is able to win those states, along with taking Florida and Michigan, he will pull this upset in election that is shaping up to be as close as it was the last two cycles.
He should not even be this close in the game. But the Democrats are allowing him to stay close enough to give him more than a punchers chance in November.
That is all he needs to win this thing.
Let’s be honest, because the last four years of President Bush have ranged from below average to downright bad, and he has put the Republican nominee (no matter who it was going to be) in a near impossible situation to win. McCain, who as a moderate, does not appeal to a sizable percentage of the "base", is forced to adjust his own personal views to “fit in”. It is to suggest that he was not “Republican enough” for his party. This has led to him not being able to maximize fundraising, as President Bush was able to do in both 2000 and 2004. And it puts him at an extreme disadvantage in comparison both Senators Clinton and Obama, who are raising at least double the money he is. In Obama's case, I've been wondering if he has a secret room to print money.
Then you add the other factors that are working against him:
Age: He is a 72-year-old man. For the most grandpa running for office. In some voting circles, that alone makes him the butt of many jokes and in others, disqualifies him from being president.
War: McCain voted for the war in Iraq. He has been 100% behind it since Day 1. This in many ways is very noble considering that many politicians have been quick to flip flop when it suits their position best (see: Kerry, John and Clinton, Hillary). At least Obama can make the argument that he voted “No” to the war from the beginning much like McCain voted “Yes.”
Economy: Polls over the last decade have shown that Democrats are better at handling the economy than Republicans are. Factor in the rising fuel prices, unemployment, mortgage crisis, and higher cost of living across the board, and this has left many voters in November looking for a change. President Bush now hands off these problems to the November winner. McCain has stood behind most of the President’s policies that has brought about the phrase “Bush’s Third Term”. He has just over five months to make a clear distinction on how he will solve those problems and not come across as Bush’s hanger-on. But he is helped by the fact that both Clinton and Obama have clearly (under)stated that they plan to raise taxes in order to get out of this hole.
Essentially, McCain is running a 100-yard race against either candidate and is starting 30 yards behind. Everything is working against him. In reality, this election should not even be competitive. Yet as of right now, if the election were held today, McCain finds himself nearly even with Clinton and leading Obama in national polls.
How is this possible?
It is to McCain’s credit that we live in a “45-45” world, meaning that both Republicans and Democrats will get that percentage of the vote no matter what assuming each party has a strong turnout. It is that remaining 10 percent that is up for taking. The way the electoral map is breaking out, if Obama (most likely) is the opponent, he will have a chance to win this unlikely election.
Obama has had problems in states such as Ohio, Pennsylvania, that total 41 electoral votes. If McCain is able to win those states, along with taking Florida and Michigan, he will pull this upset in election that is shaping up to be as close as it was the last two cycles.
He should not even be this close in the game. But the Democrats are allowing him to stay close enough to give him more than a punchers chance in November.
That is all he needs to win this thing.
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